Fundamentals 8/30: Home Prices Flat, Consumers Nervous

Consumer Confidence
-Consumer Confidence fell from 59.5 to 44.5 in August
-This is a survey measurement of predisposition to spend
-WSJ used the words “plummeted” and “plunge”
-This is lowest Consumer Confidence since April 2009
-It’s in-line with the Consumer Metrics measurement of increased online discretionary spending in early July which flattened at the end of that month.
-Consumer Confidence is measured by an independent entity called the Conference Board – a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, non-advocacy group.
-Below is a chart of Retail Sales (grey bars) and Consumer Confidence (blue line)

Retail Sales

Retail Sales
-ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, Week/Week: +0.1%
-ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, Year/Year: +3.0%
-Redbook Store Sales, Year/Year: +4.0%
-Data for this and next week should be dismissed because what we see is a spike in sales as people stocked up pre-hurricane.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June)
-10-city, not Seasonally Adjusted: +1.1%
-10-city, Seasonally Adjusted, Month/Month: 0.0%
-10-city, not Seasonally Adjusted, Year/Year: -3.9%
-The key number here (I think) is the Seasonally Adjusted Month/Month which shows that prices were flat.
More on Case Shiller coming shortly

Case-Shiller HPI