THE BASIS POINT

Fundamentals 9/30: Personal Income & Spending, Chicago PMI

Personal Income & Spending
-Personal Income, Month/Month: -0.1%
-Consumer Spending, Month/Month: 0.2%
-Core PCE price index, Month/Month: 0.1%
-Core PCE price index, Year/Year: 1.6%
-These data and the graphs below are stark. With less money coming in and less money to spend the consumer cannot drive economic growth.

Chicago PMI
-ISM – Chicago Business Barometer Index was 60.4. Previous was 56.5. Consensus was 55.4.

UMichigan Consumer Sentiment
– Index was 59.4
– Previous was 57.8
– Consensus was 57.8
-This datum over 50 implied expansion but is inconsistent the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence released Tuesday which shows a smaller gain and an index under 50 implying contraction. I am guessing that one of them is correct.

Money Supply
-Yesterday’ Fed M2 Money Supply Report showed a $14.9 billion contracion in M2.
-The H.6 Fed report shows excess banking reserves of $1,548,799,000,000.