Is Jobs Growth Slowing?

Industrial Production (September 2015)

– Production month/month  -0.2%. Previous was -0.1%
– Manufacturing month/month  -0.1%. Previous was -0.4%
– Capacity Utilization Rate   77.5%. Previous was 77.8%

Industrial Production has decline in 8 of the past 9 months.  Industrial Production includes mining and also electricity generation and much of the change over the 9 month period is due to oil well shut-downs.  In September there was a spike upward due to increased electricity usage due to warmer weather.  Nonetheless, manufacturing is down.

JOLTS (August 2015)

– Job Openings 5,370,000. Previous was 5,668,000.

The JOLTS report is the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. JOLTS has had steady improvement since August 2009.  Whether the drop for August is a trend or a blip remains to be seen.  However, this coupled with the weak BLS Employment Situation Report of 2 weeks ago argues against the Fed hiking the Fed Funds target.

 

Consumer Sentiment  (October 2015)

– University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index  92.1. Previous was 87.2.

No matter what else may be happening consumers continue to report that they will spend more money in the next 90 days.  It is my belief that much of this is a reaction to gasoline prices which are conspicuously posted everywhere.