Mixed GDP Components


Goods Trade Deficit (November 2016)
– Deficit $65.3 billion. Previous was $61.9 billion
– Exports % change -1.0%. Previous was -2.5%
– Imports % change 1.2%. Previous was +1.5%

This negatively impacts GDP. Moreover this shows the difficulty facing the new administration. The increase in goods Trade Deficit is mainly about the stronger US $ and weakening economies in other nations.


Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/14/2016)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted 265,000. Previous was 275,000
– New Claims unadjusted, totaled 340,022 an increase of 24,915 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 2630,000 . Previous was 263,750.

I want to remind folks here that as we enter the post-Christmas season the seasonal adjustments to jobless claims and jobs in the BLS Employment Situation Report are enormous and can obfuscate the health of the jobs market. This is especially large in the BLS report on January jobs which will be published the first week of February.


Wholesale Trade

– Inventories month/month +0.9%. Previous was -0.1%.

This is part of 4Q2016 GDP and a positive.

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