Smaller Pay Checks Hit Consumer Confidence. Latest On Home Prices

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (November 2012)
20-city, Seasonally Adjusted – Month/Month 0.6%. Previous +0.7% 20-city
Unadjusted Month/Month -0.1%. Previous -0.1%. 20-city
Unadjusted – Year/Year  5.5%. Previous 4.3%.

This is another bit of data much like Initial Jobless Claims last week where the difference between adjusted and unadjusted data is significant.

Chain Store Sales (week ended 1/26/2013)

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

– Store Sales – Week/Week -1.0% – Store Sales – Year/Year 2.0%


– Store Sales Year/Year change +1.6 %

Chain Store Sales are at the lowest growth rate since before Thanksgiving.  Very cold weather in some parts of the country affected this but we also may be seeing an effect of higher payroll taxes and lower take home pay.  Consumer Spending had been supported by reduced payroll taxes for Social Security.

Consumer Confidence (January 2013)

– Consumer Confidence is 58.6 down from a revised 66.1 in December.  This is a survey index attempting to measure consumers’ predisposition to spend.  This could be another result of lower take home pay.  This is the lowest level of Consumer Confidence since 2011.  The drop in confidence could be a one time reaction to “What the heck happened to my paycheck?”