Strong Fundamentals today.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/18/2016)

– Purchase Index Week/Week +19.0%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, +1.0%, -0.4%, -7.0%, +3.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, +1.0%, +1.0%, and -0.3%.
– Refinance Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -11.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, -8.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, -8.0%, +2.0%, +1.0%, +4.0%, and -3.0%.
– Composite Index Week/Week +5.5%. Previous weeks were -9.2%, -1.2%, -1.2%, -4.1%, -0.6%, -6.0%, +2.9%, -0.7%. -7.3%, +4.2%, +0.9%, and +2.8%.
The large increase in Purchase Applications would seem to indicate that the recent increase in rates did not diminish the appetite for homeownership.

 
Durable Goods Orders (October 2016)

– New Orders month/month +4.8%. Previous was +0.4%
– New Orders year/year +2.1%. Previous was +1.6%
– Ex-transportation month/month +1.0%. Previous was +0.2%
– Ex-transportation year/year +0.3%. Previous was +0.0%
– Core capital goods month/month +14.5%. Previous was -1.2%
– Core capital goods year/year +2.4%. Previous was -4.1%

These are strong numbers.

 
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/19/2016)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted 251,000. Previous was 233,000
– New Claims unadjusted totaled 287,137 an increase of 63,367 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average 251,000 Previous was 253,000

The previous week was a 43-year low so this is still healthy data. Note that as we get into the Christmas season the seasonal adjustments to Jobless Claims and headline jobs in the BLS Employment Situation Report are very large.

 

FHFA House Price Index (September 2016)

– month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.7%
– year/year +6.1%. Previous was +6.4%

 

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (November 2016)

– Level 53.9. Previous was 53.2

 

New Home Sales (October 2016)

– New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 563,000. Previous was 574,000

 
Consumer Sentiment (November 2016)

– Sentiment Index 93.8. Previous was 91.6.

This is the University of Michigan Index.