Why All This Data is Sometimes Useless.

While I report here each day economic fundamentals with a view as to how they are likely to affect interest rates yesterday was an excellent example of how this analysis and the technical forecast report each week in my newsletters is easily overrun by a major announcement.  Yesterday the Fed minutes indicated that the Fed planned to start tapering in the next few months.  This slammed Treasuries and that effect will not dissipate any time in the near future.

Jobless Claims (week ended 11/16/2013)

– New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 323,000. Previous revised up to 344,000
– 4-week Moving Average  338,000. Previous was 344,000
– Unadjusted initial claims totaled 322,510 in the week ending November 16, a decrease of 40,996 from the previous week.

Producer Price Index (October 2013)

PPI Month/Month  -0.2%. Previous was -0.1%
PPI Year/Year  +0.3%. Previous was +0.3%
PPI less food & energy Month/Month +0.2%. Previous was 0.1%
PPI less food & energy Year/Year  +1.4 %.  Previous was 1.2%.

Details aside, inflation is still tame.

 Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey (November 2013)

– General Business Conditions Index 6.5.  Previous was 19.8.

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (November 2013)

This is the flash or preliminary estimate which is issued a week before the final data.

– Level 54.3.  Previous was 51.1.

This indicates increased strength in manufacturing.  This is a survey index produced by Markit Economics.