The second of three 4Q09 GDP readings came in today at +5.9%, making a second consecutive quarter of positive GDP growth after four consecutive quarters of economic contraction (a 60yr record for consecutive GDP declines). The strong initial GDP reading was due largely to acceleration in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an
February 2010
Mortgage Markets After March 31 For the week that just ended for the Fed, their MBS purchases totaled $17.6 billion, and they sold $6.6 billion, netting out that magical $11 billion weekly total. They are right on target to end this in about a month. After March 31st, the program ceases. People will still buy
Mortgage Markets After March 31 For the week that just ended for the Fed, their MBS purchases totaled $17.6 billion, and they sold $6.6 billion, netting out that magical $11 billion weekly total. They are right on target to end this in about a month. After March 31st, the program ceases. People will still buy
The Wall Street Journal just posted a list of what they think the top 10 finance blogs are at the present time. No surprises for those who read finance blogs regularly, and good reference links for those who don’t. The good part is that they didn’t link to blogs run by big media sites, they’re
Lots of Economic News, Commercial Property Update, $7.8b Freddie Loss, Lender Comments From Trenches
Treasury Auctions Weigh on Markets Yesterday’s $42 billion 5-yr auction did not go well. It goes back to the “What if we held an auction and nobody bid?” Indirect bids, which in the past indicated a level of interest from foreign entities but in the last year became a little convoluted, have been on a
Following Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House Financial Services Committee this morning, stocks are rallying, Treasuries are up modestly and mortgage bonds are flat. The full testimony is below and the core message hasn’t changed: a “nascent” economic recovery means that inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time, the Fed
NAR’s Proposal for Fannie/Freddie My daughter and I went through the McDonald’s take-out window and I gave the clerk a $5 bill. Our total was $4.25, so I also handed her a quarter. She said, “You gave me too much money.” I said, “Yes I know, but this way you can just give me a
The S&P Case Shiller December 2009 report of existing home sales showed year-over-year -3.1% price declines averaged across 20 major metropolitan areas (see table below). Notable declines for the year-over-year period were Las Vegas -20.6%, Tampa -11%, and Detroit -10.3%, and Phoenix -9.2%. But comparing YOY November to YOY December, all 20 metro areas showed
State of Mortgage Industry Let’s start off with two basic premises. First, there has always been a range of borrowers (credit & risk-wise) that need home loans at rates that match the risk. Second, there have always been investors out there with varying degrees of appetite for risk, and demand more return for higher risk.
What Are Covered Bonds, And Can They Help Housing? Lately there has been some talk in the investor community about using covered bonds to supplement or replace mortgage-backed securities, therefore helping the secondary market for mortgages, which in turn would help originators. What is a “covered bond”? In this case, covered bonds are debt securities
Extreme rate volatility discussed in this WeeklyBasis report two weeks ago still holds. Rates traded up and down about .375% this week on fears about business inflation and Fed rate hikes. Today’s tame consumer inflation contributed to rates dropping again, and rates end the week roughly .25% above all time record lows. But this record
This report covers weeks 57-59 of a mortgage bond purchase program by the Federal Reserve—here’s week 56. In the last three weeks, the Fed bought $34b net of mortgage bonds as follows: $12b Jan 28-Feb 3, $11b Feb 4-10, $11b Feb 12-17. For the past 5 months, the Fed has focused weekly buying on 4.5%
The US Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy, increased 0.2% in January and 2.6% year-over-year through January. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” CPI for January decreased -0.1% and increased 1.6% YOY through January. You can automatically create charts and download historical CPI data
Loan Agents Comment on New Good Faith Estimate I didn’t plan on yesterday’s Real Words From a Real Agent to incite such a firestorm of e-mails. But first, some “Good Faith Estimate chatter.” The grace period of the new GFE is set forth pretty clearly. But lenders are finding out that what HUD allows and
The Onion unquestionably produces the best satire headlines in the humor business, but sometimes their stories miss the potential of the headlines. This is unfortunately the case with this week’s story entitled U.S. Economy Grinds To Halt As Nation Realizes Money Just A Symbolic, Mutually Shared Illusion. But not to worry because here’s another choice
The US Producer Price Index, which measures inflation at the business and manufacturing levels of the economy, was 1.4% in January and 4.6% year-over-year through January. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PPI for January was 0.3% and 1% YOY through January. These monthly “All” and “Core” numbers were higher than
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