November 2012

Comsumer Spending Down.

Personal Income and Outlays (October 2012) Personal Income – Month/Month +0.0% Consumer Spending – Month/Month -0.2% PCE Price Index — Month/Month 0.1% Core PCE price index – Month/Month 0.1% Personal Income – Year/Year  3.1% Consumer Spending – Year/Year 3.1% PCE Price Index — Year/Year 1.7% Core PCE price index – Year/Year 1.6% Some of the

Deceptive Headline GDP. Initial Jobless Still too High.

GDP (3rdQ2012 – second estimate) – GDP was revised from +2.0% to +2.7% – The GDP deflator (a measure of inflation) was 2.7%. The increase looks good until one looks inside.  According to BEA, GDP was made up of the following components: – real personal consumption was +1.4% compared with 1.5% in 2ndQ – Durable

Housing Recovery Far from “All in.”

New Home Sales (October 2012) New Home Sales (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) 368,000. Previous was 389,000. Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/23/2012) Purchase Index – Week/Week +3.0% Refinance Index – Week/Week -2.0% Composite Index – Week/Week -0.9% We have mixed messages: purchase applications are up and New Home Sales are down. While the fall in New

Manufacturing in U.S. Weakens.

Manufacturing Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (October 2012) – Index Level -0.56.  Previous was 0.00. Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (November 2012) This is a survey index of manufacturers in Texas. Business Activity Index was -2.9.  Previous was +1.8.  October had been the only positive month since June. These data further support the notion