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Jobless Claims up but still low.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/8/2014) – Initial Claims 311,000. Previous was 290,000 – 4-week Moving Average 297,750. Previous was 293.750   Import & Export Prices  (July 2014) – Export Prices month/month +0.0%. Previous was -0.4% – Export Prices year/year +0.4%. Previous was +0.2% – Import Prices month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.2% – Import Prices […]

 

Weak Jobs/Regulation Hurting Housing

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/8/2014)   – Purchase Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%. +0.2%, +0.3%, -8.0%, +4.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%. -5.2%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, and -3.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -4.0% . Previous weeks were +4.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, -0.1%, +0.4%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -13.0%, +11.0%, -3.0%, and -1.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -2.7%. Previous […]

 

Job Openings up.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (July 2014) – Optimism level 95.7.  Previous was 95.8. This is a survey index of small businesses.   ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 8/9/2014) – Store Sales week/week -1.4%. Previous was +0.2% – Store Sales year/year +3.2%. Previous was +4.5%   Redbook Store Sales (week ended 8/9/2014) – Store Sales […]

 

1stQ2014 Unit Labor Cost Revised Sharply upwards.

Worker Productivity & Costs  (2ndQ2014) – Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized) +2.5%. Previous was -4.5%. – Unit labor costs quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized) +0.6%. Previous was +11.8%. What is off-scale here is the very large increase in 1stQ2014 Unit Labor Cost.  This was likely the consequence of lower 1stQ2014 GDP and possibly increased health […]

 

Initial Jobless Claims at 8-year Low.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/2/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 289,000. Previous was 303,000 – New Claims unadjusted were 247,133 a decrease of 10,492 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average  293,500.  Previous was 297,500. New Jobless Claims are at a 8-year low and encouraging.

 

Housing Still Hurting

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/1/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +0.2%, +0.3%, -8.0%, +4.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%. -5.2%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, and -1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0% . Previous weeks were -4.0%, +4.0%, -0.1%, +0.4%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -13.0%, +11.0%, -3.0%,-1.0%, and +4.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +1.6%. Previous weeks were  […]

 

Modestly Better Fundamentals.

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 8/2/2014) – Store Sales week/week +0.2%.  Previous was +0.2% – Store Sales year/year +4.5%.  Previous was +4.6%.   Redbook (week ended 8/2/2014) – Store Sales year/year +4.6%.  Previous was +3.0%. PMI Services Index  (July 2014) – Index Level  60.8. Previous was 61.1.   Factory Orders  (June 2014) – Factory Orders […]

 

BLS Jobs Mediocre.

Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report   This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the […]

 

GDP +1.8% (annualized) for 1st Half of 2014.

2ndQ2014 GDP – Real (inflation adjusted) GDP quarter/quarter +4.0%.  Previous was revised to -2.1%. If we chain those, we have 1.8% annualized growth for the first 6 months of 2014.  For 2011–2013, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.0%; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual […]

 

Flatter Home Prices.

There is a lot happening this week:  FOMC meeting starts today, 2ndQ2014 GDP tomorrow, BLS Employment Situation Report Friday. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 7/26/2014) – Store Sales week/week +0.2%.  Previous was -0.4% – Store Sales year/year +4.6%. Previous was +2.8%. Redbook Store Sales (week ended 7/26/2014) – Store Sales year/year +3.0%. Previous was +3.7% […]

 
 
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