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Manufacturing Weakens.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (March 2015) – General Business Conditions Index  6.90. Previous was  7.78. This is a measure of manufacturing in New York State.   Industrial Production  (February 2015) – Production month/month +0.1%  Previous was -0.3% – Capacity Utilization Rate 78.9%. Previous was 79.1% – Manufacturing month/month  -0.2% . Previous was -0.3%. This data […]

 

Wholesale Prices Fall after January Record Drop.

PPI-FD – Wholesale Inflation (February 2015)   – PPI-FD month/month  -0.5%. Previous was -0.8% – PPI-FD year/year  -0.7%. Previous was  -0.1% – PPI-FD less food & energy month/month  -0.5%. Previous was -0.1% – PPI-FD less food & energy year/year   1.0%. Previous was +1.5% – PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.0%. Previous was […]

 

Fundamentals Indicate Weak 1stQ GDP.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/7/2015) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 289,000. Previous was 325,000 – New Claims unadjusted  totaled 277,179 decrease of 38,387 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  302,250. Previous was 306,000.   Retail Sales (February 2015) – Retail Sales month/month -0.6%. Previous was -0.8% – Retail Sales less […]

 

Mortgage Applications Flat

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/27/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, and +3.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, and +13.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -1.3%. Previous […]

 

Supply Side Got Ahead of Demand.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/7/2015) – Store Sales Store year/year +2.6%. Previous was +2.7%.   NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (February 2015) – level  98.0. Previous was 97.9.   JOLTS (January 2015) – Job Openings 4,998,000.  Previous revised from 5,028,000 to 4,877,000   Wholesale Trade (January 2015) – Wholesale Trade +0.3%.  Previous was […]

 

BLS Good not Great. Watch US$ v Euro.

BLS Employment Situation Report (February 2015) – Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  295,000. Previous was +239,000 – Unemployment Rate   5.5%.  Previous was 5.7% – Private Payrolls month/month  288,000. Previous was +237,000 – Participation Rate    62.8%. Previous was  62.9% – Average Hourly Earnings month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.5% – Average Workweek  34.6 hours same as previous. The Unemployment […]

 

Fundamentals a bit Soft.

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 2/28/2015)   – New Claims seasonally adjusted  320,000. Previous was 313,000 – New Claims unadjusted 310,497  an increase of 29,858 from previous . – 4-week Moving Average  304,750. Previous was 294,500   Challenger Job-Cut Report (February 2015)   – Announced Layoffs 50,579. Previous was 53,041 For 3 years this number […]

 

Manufacturing up, Mortgage Applications Weak

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/20/2014)   – Purchase Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and -10.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, and -13%. – Composite Index Week/Week +0.1%. […]

 

Personal Income up, Spending down.

Personal Income and Outlays  (January 2015)   Personal Income month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.3% Consumer Spending month/month  -0.2%. Previous was -0.3% PCE Price Index month/month  -0.5%. Previous was -0.2% Core PCE price index month/month  +0.1%. Previous was +0.0% Personal Income year/year   +4.6%. Previous was +4.8% Consumer Spending year/year  +3.6%. Previous was +3.6% PCE Price Index […]

 

Weak GDP Growth just Got Weaker.

GDP (4th Q2014) – Real GDP quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +2.2%. Previous estimate was +2.6% – GDP price index quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.1%. Previous estimate was +0.0%. This is weak.  We should be targeting 4% annual growth.   Chicago PMI (February 2015) – Business Barometer Index  45.8. Previous was 59.4. This is the lowest […]

 
 
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