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Inflation Waning.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/10/2016) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 260,000. Previous was 259,000 – 4-week Moving Average 260,750. Previous was 261,250 – New Claims unadjusted, totaled 193,366 a decrease of 24,349 from previous     PPI-FD (August 2016) – PPI-FD month/month 0.0%. Previous was -0.4% – PPI-FD year/year 0.0%. Previous was -0.2% – […]

 

Is Inflation Headed down?

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 9/9/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week +9.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +1.0%, -0.3%, -4.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +0.0%, +4.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, and -5.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were ++1.0%, +4.0%, -3.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, -15.0%, -1.0%, +11.0%, +21.0%, -2.0%, +7.0%. -1.0%, and +7.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +4.2%. […]

 

No Help from Fundamentals.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (August 2016) – Index level 94.4. Previous was 94.6   Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 9/10/2016) – Store Sales year/year +0.4%. Previous was +0.8% The most significant thing about the fundamentals is that they do not show the strength to justify a Fed hike.

 

Jobless Claim Remain Low.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/3/2016) – Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 259,000. Previous was 263,000 – Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 218,300 an increase of 3,151 from previous – 4-week Moving Average 261,250. Previous was 263,000   Quarterly Information Services Survey (2ndQ2016) – Information Revenue quarter/quarter -0.1%. Previous was +1.4% – Information Revenue year/year +3.8%. Previous […]

 

August BLS Jobs Report Weak.

For several years I have been writing this numerically detailed analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report. I remain massively frustrated at the absolutely poor mainstream reporting of the jobs report. This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about […]

 

Labor Market Weakens in August.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (August 2016) – Composite Index 51.4. Previous was 55.5   Labor Market Conditions Index (August 2016) – Index -0.7. Previous was 1.3. This is the broadest metric for the jobs market and this has been negative for 7 of the past 8 months. Media accounts that the jobs market has been healthy […]

 

ADP Private Jobs Growth Slows.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/19/016) – Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -0.3%, -4.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +0.0%, +4.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -5.0%, +12.0%, and -5.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, -15.0%, -1.0%, +11.0%, +21.0%, -2.0%, +7.0%. -1.0%, +7.0%, -4.0%, and +0.4%. – Composite Index Week/Week +2.8%. […]

 

National Home Price Increases slow.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/27/2016) – Store Sales year/year +0.6%. Previous was +0.2%   S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June 2016) – 20-city seasonally adjusted month/month -0.1%. Previous was -0.1% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.9% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year +5.1%. Previous was +5.3% Weakness is regional […]

 

Personal Income +0.4% month/month.

Personal Income and Outlays (July 2016) – Personal Income month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.3% – Consumer Spending month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.5% – PCE Price Index month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.1% – Core PCE price index month/month+0.1%. Previous was +0.1% – PCE Price Index year/year +0.8%. Previous was +0.9% – Core PCE price index year/year […]

 

2ndQ2016 GDP Weak, revised down.

GDP (2ndQ2016) – Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1.1%. Previous was +1.2% – GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted +2.3%. Previous was +2.1% While the headline is miserable consumer spending, which is what drives GDP, was better. Spending on Consumer Goods was +1.5%. Spending on Consumer Services was +1.42%. Real Final Sales of […]

 
 
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