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Stronger US$ Will Hurt Exports.

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 11/1/2014) – Store Sales week/week  -1.6%. Previous was +0.3% – Store Sales year/year +1.8%. Previous was +2.8%. Redbook Store Sales (week ended 11/1/2014) – Store Sales year/year +3.9%. Previous was +4.4%.   International Trade (September 2014) – Trade Deficit $43.0 billion. Previous was $40.0 billion. Exports were down 1.5% due […]

 

Residential Construction Flat for 12 months.

PMI Manufacturing Index (October 2014) – Index Level 55.9. Previous was 57.5.   ISM Manufacturing Index (October 2014) – Index Level 59.0. Previous was 56.0.   Construction Spending (September 2014) – Construction Spending month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.5%. This is 2 consecutive months of decline.  Residential Construction spending has been flat for a year reflecting […]

 

Consumer Spending Weakens.

Personal Income and Outlays (September 2014) – Personal Income month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.3% – Consumer Spending month/month  -0.2%. Previous was +0.5% – PCE Price Index month/month +0.1%. Previous was -0.1% – Core PCE price index month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.1% – Consumer Spending  +1.4%. Previous was +1.4% – Core PCE price index year/year +1.5%. […]

 

GDP +3.5% 3rdQ2014.

GDP 3rdQ2014 First Estimate – Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted/annualized 3.5%. Previous quarter was +4.6% – GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted/annualized.  +1.3%. Previous quarter was +2.1% This initial estimate has only 2 of 3 months data for all but the consumer spending and usually sees large adjustments.  3.5% growth is good but still a […]

 

Unintended Consequences.

MBA Applications (week ended 10/24/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, +0.0%, -0.3%, +5.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, -0.4%, -1.0%, and -1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -7.0%. Previous weeks were +23.0%, +11.0%, +5.0%, -0.3%, -7.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, and -4.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -6.6%. Previous weeks were +11.6%, […]

 

Flatter Home Prices.

S&P Case-Shiller HPI (August 2014) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  -0.1%. Previous was -0.5% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.6% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year  +5.6%. Previous was +6.7%. While flat home prices may cause trouble for folks in the real estate or mortgage business, they help make homes affordable. […]

 

Flat Fundamentals.

PMI Services Flash (October 2014) – Index Level  57.3. Previous was 58.0. Any value above 50 represents growth.   Pending Home Sales Index (September 2014) – Pending Home Sales Index  105.0. Previous was 104.7 This represents existing homes in contract for sale.   Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (October 2014) – Business Activity Index  10.5. […]

 

Positive Fundamentals today.

Jobless Claims (week ended 10/18/2014) – New Claims 283,000. Previous was 266,000 – 4-week Moving Average 281,000. Previous was 284,000. This is still low.   Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (September 2014) – Level     0.47. Previous was -0.25 – 3 Month Moving Average  0.25. Previous was 0.16. Both Employment and Production showed strength.   […]

 

Existing Home Sales Recover.

Existing Home Sales (September 2014) – Existing Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 5,170,000.  Previous was 5,050,000. – Existing Home Sales -year/year -1.7%. Most of the month/month gain is a recovery of the previous loss.   ICSC-Goldman Store Sales  (week ended 10/18/2014) – Store Sales week/week  -0.3%. Previous was -0.7% – Store Sales year/year  +2.1%. Previous […]

 

Jobless Claims at 14-year Low.

Jobless Claims (week ended 10/11/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 264,000. Previous was 287,000 – New Claims  totaled 271,590  an increase of 14,031 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average   283,500.   Industrial Production (September 2014) – Production month/month +1.0%. Previous was -0.2% – Capacity Utilization Rate 79.3%. Previous was 78.7% – Manufacturing month/month +0.5%. […]

 
 
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