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Productivity down with Weak GDP.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/1/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were  +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, and -2.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -8.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, and -10.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -4.6%. Previous […]

 

Trade Deficit Largest since 2008.

International Trade  (March 2015) – Trade Deficit $-51.4 billion. Previous was $35.9 billion. This is the largest Trade Deficit since 2008. The 1stQ2015 GDP estimate of -0.2% had only 2 months of Import/Export data with March estimated. This increase in Trade Deficit could mean that we had GDP loss in the 1stQ2015.  The increase in […]

 

Mixed Message.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/25/2015) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 262,000. Previous was 296,000 – New Claims unadjusted totaled 250,815  a decrease of 28,982 previous. – 4-week Moving Average   283,750. Previous was 285,000. This is the lowest level of Initial Claims in 15 years.  One problem is that Initial Jobless Claims is only loosely […]

 

Another Weak Quarter of GDP Growth.

GDP (1stQ2015) – Real (inflation adjusted) GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.2%. Previous was +2.2%. – GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized -0.1%. Previous was +0.1%. Consumer Spending was +1.9% and that is the most important part of GDP.  That also means that the story that this was about bad weather is inaccurate.  GDP […]

 

Fundamentals Sluggish. FOMC Meeting Starts.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 4/25/2015) – Chain Store Sales year/year change  +1.4%. Previous was +0.8%.   S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (February 2015) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.9% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month +0.5%. Previous was -0.1% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year +5.0%. Previous was +4.5%. Consumer […]

 

Texas Hurt by Drop in Oil Prices.

PMI Services Flash  (April 2015) – Index Level  57.8. Previous was 58.6. Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey  (April 2015) – Business Activity Index -16.  Previous as -17.4. As I discussed in my newsletter of Friday the big business in Texas is oil.  Low oil prices have led to lower well count and nothing being ordered […]

 

Oil and Jobs

We have seen jobs growth fall recently after a year or so of what was deemed healthy growth. So what’s wrong? If you look inside what caused jobs growth to increased and what caused growth to slow the answer is obvious.   From June 2009 to the end of 2014 40% of all the new […]

 

Durables Flat.

Durable Goods Orders (March 2015)    – New Orders month/month  +4.0%. Previous was -1.4% – New Orders year/year +0.7%. Previous was +0.6% – Ex-transportation month/month -0.2%.  Previous was +0.5% – Ex-transportation year/year -1.9%.  Previous was +1.2%. The only big industry ex-trans to show a gain was electronics. Manufacturing is flat.

 

Is Housing up or down?

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/18/2015) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 295,000. Previous was 294,000 – New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 279,097 a decrease of 28,102 from previous – 4-week Moving Average  284,500. Previous was 282,750.   PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (April 2015) – Level  54.2. Previous was 55.3.   New Home Sales (March 2015) – […]

 

Housing Data Requires Closer Read.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/17/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, and -3.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, and -5.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +2.3%. Previous […]

 
 
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