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Some Encouraging Signs in BLS.

BLS Employment Situation Report (October 2014) – Labor Participation Rate 62.8%. Previous was 62.7%. – Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  214,000. Previous was 256,000 – Part-time Jobs -76,000 – Unemployment Rate  5.8%. Previous was 5.9% – Average Hourly Earnings month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.0% – Average Workweek   34.6 Hours. Previous was 34.5 Hours. This is a modestly […]

 

Jobless Claims low but Payroll/Population down.

Jobless Claims (week ended 11/1/2014) – New Claims 278,000. Previous was 288,000 – 4-week Moving Average  279,000. Previous was 281,250.   Challenger Job-Cut Report (October 2014) – Announced Layoffs  51,183. Previous was 30,477.   Gallup US Payroll to Population (October 2014) – Payroll to Population Ratio 44.4%. Previous was 44.8%. This is akin to the […]

 

Flat Fundamentals.

MBA Purchase Applications (week ended 10/31/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +3.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, -5.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, +0.0%, -0.3%, +5.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, -0.4%, and -1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -6.0%. Previous weeks were -7.0%, +23.0%, +11.0%, +5.0%, -0.3%, -7.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and +3.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -2.6%. Previous weeks were […]

 

Stronger US$ Will Hurt Exports.

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 11/1/2014) – Store Sales week/week  -1.6%. Previous was +0.3% – Store Sales year/year +1.8%. Previous was +2.8%. Redbook Store Sales (week ended 11/1/2014) – Store Sales year/year +3.9%. Previous was +4.4%.   International Trade (September 2014) – Trade Deficit $43.0 billion. Previous was $40.0 billion. Exports were down 1.5% due […]

 

Residential Construction Flat for 12 months.

PMI Manufacturing Index (October 2014) – Index Level 55.9. Previous was 57.5.   ISM Manufacturing Index (October 2014) – Index Level 59.0. Previous was 56.0.   Construction Spending (September 2014) – Construction Spending month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.5%. This is 2 consecutive months of decline.  Residential Construction spending has been flat for a year reflecting […]

 

Consumer Spending Weakens.

Personal Income and Outlays (September 2014) – Personal Income month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.3% – Consumer Spending month/month  -0.2%. Previous was +0.5% – PCE Price Index month/month +0.1%. Previous was -0.1% – Core PCE price index month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.1% – Consumer Spending  +1.4%. Previous was +1.4% – Core PCE price index year/year +1.5%. […]

 

GDP +3.5% 3rdQ2014.

GDP 3rdQ2014 First Estimate – Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted/annualized 3.5%. Previous quarter was +4.6% – GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted/annualized.  +1.3%. Previous quarter was +2.1% This initial estimate has only 2 of 3 months data for all but the consumer spending and usually sees large adjustments.  3.5% growth is good but still a […]

 

Unintended Consequences.

MBA Applications (week ended 10/24/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, +0.0%, -0.3%, +5.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, -0.4%, -1.0%, and -1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -7.0%. Previous weeks were +23.0%, +11.0%, +5.0%, -0.3%, -7.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, and -4.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -6.6%. Previous weeks were +11.6%, […]

 

Flatter Home Prices.

S&P Case-Shiller HPI (August 2014) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  -0.1%. Previous was -0.5% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.6% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year  +5.6%. Previous was +6.7%. While flat home prices may cause trouble for folks in the real estate or mortgage business, they help make homes affordable. […]

 

Flat Fundamentals.

PMI Services Flash (October 2014) – Index Level  57.3. Previous was 58.0. Any value above 50 represents growth.   Pending Home Sales Index (September 2014) – Pending Home Sales Index  105.0. Previous was 104.7 This represents existing homes in contract for sale.   Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (October 2014) – Business Activity Index  10.5. […]

 
 
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