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Retail Sales Drop bad for 2ndQ GDP

Retail Sales (June 2015) – Retail Sales month/month -0.3%. Previous was +1.0%. – Retail Sales less autos month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.8% – Less Autos & Gas month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.5%. This is seriously lower than expected and points out the disconnect between the Consumer Sentiment/Confidence Indices which are supposed to forecast what consumers […]

 

Inventories (a GDP component) pick up.

Wholesale Trade  (May 2015)  – Inventories month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.4%. This is a GDP component.  Is had been low for months because consumer spending was weak in the 1stQ2015.

 

Initial Jobless Claims up.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 7/4/2015)   – New Claims, seasonally adjusted, 297,000. Previous was 282,000 – New Claims, unadjusted, totaled 303,892  increase of 29,246  from previous – 4-week Moving Average   279,500. Previous was 275,000.

 

Mortgage Applications Bounce up.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/26/2015)   – Purchase Index Week/Week  +7.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, +1.0%. -4.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, -4.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, and +7.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +3.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, +7.0%, -12.0%, -4.0%, +0.3%, -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, and -2.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +4.6%. […]

 

Job Openings Flat.

International Trade (may 2015) – Trade Deficit  $41.9 billion.  Previous was $40.9 billion. Assuming that one consequence of Greece is a continued strengthening of the US dollar v the Euro, the trade deficit will increase and imports become cheaper and exports become more expensive. This will also keep commodity prices down.   Redbook Chain Store […]

 

Fed’s Labor Market Index Shows Weak Growth.

PMI Services Index  (June 2015) – Level 54.8. Previous was 56.8   Labor Market Conditions Index (June 2015) – Level   0.8. Previous was 1.3. This index comes from the Federal Reserve and 19 different pieces of data including the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and wage growth.   This may be a better indication of the […]

 

May BLS Weak

BLS Employment Situation Report (June 2015) – Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  223,000. Previous was 254,000 – Unemployment Rate  5.3%. Previous was 5.5% – Private Payrolls – month/month change   223,000. Previous was 250,000 – Participation Rate 62.6%. Previous was  62.9% – Average Hourly Earnings – month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.2% – Average Workweek – 34.5 hours. Previous […]

 

Housing Growth Restrained.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/26/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%. -4.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, -4.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, and +6.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, -7.0%, +7.0%, -12.0%, -4.0%, +0.3%, -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, and -3.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -4.7%. Previous […]

 

Home Prices Fall in 8 of 20 Cities.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April 2015) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted, month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +1.0% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted, month/month  +1.1%. Previous was +0.9% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year  +4.9%. Previous was +5.0%. There were lower prices in some cities, in fact, 8 of 20 cities had lower prices in April. Chicago […]

 

Pending Home Sales up.

Pending Home Sales Index (May 2015) – Pending Home Sales Index month/month   112.6. Previous was revised from 112.4 to 111.6. These are existing homes which are in contract for sale but have not yet closed. The downward revision to the previous month makes for a rather large gain.   Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey  (June […]

 
 
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