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Fundamentals Slightly Weaker.

MBA Purchase Applications (week ended 9/26/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +0.0%. Previous weeks were -0.3%, +5.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, -0.4%, -1.0%, -1.0%. +0.2%, +0.3%, -8.0%, and +4.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -0.3%. Previous weeks were -7.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, and -0.1%. – Composite Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were […]

 

Personal Income/Consumer Spending up.

Personal Income and Outlays  (August 2014) – Personal Income month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.2% – Consumer Spending month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.0% – Personal Income year/year +4.3%. Previous was +4.4% – Consumer Spending year/year +4.1%. Previous was +3.8%. Inflation: – PCE Price Index month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.1% – Core PCE price index month/month +0.1%. […]

 

GDP +4.6% in 2ndQ after down 1st Quarter

GDP (2ndQ2014) – Real GDP quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized) +4.6%.  This is the “final” revision to 2nd Q. – GDP price index quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized) +2.1%. Previous was +2.1% With the 1stQ2014 having been -2.1% the data for the 2nd quarter shows lackluster growth for the first 6 months of the year.   Corporate […]

 

Initial Jobless Claims Remain low.

Durable Goods Orders (August 2014) – New Orders month/month -18.2%. Previous was +22.5% – New Orders year/year  +8.9%. Previous was +33.7% – Ex-transportation month/month +0.7%. Previous was -0.5% – Ex-transportation year/year  +7.3%. Previous was +6.8%. Overall reflect that the very large dollar value of aircraft orders in July fell off, as expected, in August.  The […]

 

New Home Sales up in West and South.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 9/19/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -0.3%. Previous weeks were +5.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, -0.4%, -1.0%, -1.0%. +0.2%, +0.3%, -8.0%, +4.0%, and -1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -7.0%. Previous weeks were +10.0%, -11.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, -0.1%, and +0.4%. – Composite Index Week/Week -4.1%. Previous weeks were […]

 

More Evidence of Flatter Home Prices.

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 9/20/2014) – Store Sales week/week +0.1 %. Previous was -2.6% – Store Sales year/year +4.1%. Previous was +3.0%   Redbook (week ended 9/20/2014) – Store Sales year/year +3.7%. Previous was +3.6%.   FHFA House Price Index (July 2014) – month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.3% – year/year +4.4%. Previous was +5.1% […]

 

Existing Home Sales down.

Existing Home Sales  (August 2014) – Existing Home Sales (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) 5,050,000. Previous was 5,140,000 Month/month this is -1.8%. Year/year this is -5.3%. The explanation is the same as usual:  fewer jobs paying enough to own a home, higher home prices, and tougher government mandated mortgage qualifying.   Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity […]

 

LEI Flatter

Leading Economic Indicators (August 2014) – LEI month/month +0.2%.  Previous was revised from +0.9% to +1.1%. This is a rehash of existing data intended to forecast economic growth about 3 months from now.

 

Housing Starts down.

Housing Starts (August 2014) – Housing Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized 956,000. Previous was 1,117,000 – Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized 998,000. Previous was 1,057,000. This indicates that the momentum housing was gaining is not sustaining.  The underlying fact is that not enough people are getting jobs with income high enough to support homeownership. To keep pace […]

 

No Inflation.

Consumer Price Index (August 2014) – CPI month/month (overall) -0.2%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI year/year (overall)  +1.7%. Previous was +2.0% – CPI month/month core (less food & energy)  +0.0%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI year/year core (less food & energy) +1.7%. Previous was +1.9%. This absence of any effect on inflation generated from expanded […]

 
 
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