Rates are down this morning on a huge mortgage bond rally (FNMA 4% coupon +65 basis points) following a BLS report showing the economy only added 18,000 non-farm payrolls in June, fewest in nine months, plus April and May were revised down 44,000. Non-farm payrolls doesn’t count actual people, it counts how many companies opened
BLS
The BLS Employment Situation Report was much worse than expectation. The headline is +18,000 jobs. By comparison, prior was +54,000, Consensus was around +100,000 and the number of new jobs which need to be added each month to keep the same percent of the population working is around 121,000. Private jobs were +57,000 while government
Rates were up .25% to end last week on perception of improving situations in Greece, U.S. housing, U.S. jobs, and U.S. manufacturing. This week is light on economic data (calendar below), and jobs reports will be the highlights. Rates are slightly lower to begin this week as mortgage bonds rally to regain some of last
Rates were up .25% to end last week on perception of improving situations in Greece, U.S. housing, U.S. jobs, and U.S. manufacturing. This week is light on economic data (calendar below), and jobs reports will be the highlights. Rates are slightly lower to begin this week as mortgage bonds rally to regain some of last
Rates were down early as bonds rallied after May’s jobs report showed non-farm payrolls only increased 54k, down sharply from the 232k April gain. But rates have risen a bit as bonds sell on news of new aid for Greece. Given weaker economic data across the board, rates won’t jump, but the mortgage bonds that
– May BLS Jobs +54k vs. +232k April and +90k-200k estimates. – Private Sector gained 83k. Public sector lost 29k. – The manufacturing sector lost 5k jobs. – Unemployment Rate 9.1% – Average Hourly Wage was +0.3% – Average Workweek increased to 34.4 hours. – Half of the 54k net gain was from healthcare. I
Bonds sold initially, pushing rates up, after today’s 244k new April jobs figure beat 185k expectations for non-farm jobs. But bonds and rates have stabilized as traders study a different aspect of the jobs report: unemployment rose from 8.8% to 9% and the jobs component of the unemployment survey showed that 190k jobs were LOST
Today is the fourteenth straight day of mortgage bond gains, and rates drop when bond prices rise like this. Mortgage bonds are up 38 basis points today (FNMA 30yr 4% coupon as of 3:20 ET) and now sitting 78 basis points above the previous 2011 high set March 16. The big drivers keeping the bond
On this April Fool’s Day, the only fools are those who bet on a worse jobs report. Stocks are up (S&P +11, Dow +92) and bonds are slightly down (10yr Note -16 bps, FNMA 30yr 4% coupon -9 bps) after the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non-farm payrolls rose 216k in March and the
This morning’s February jobs report suggests meaningful improvement: +222k private jobs created vs. +50k created last month, and unemployment rate of 8.9% vs. 9% last month. But wages are flat in the report, plus other issues like rising oil caused by massive fighting in Libya between citizens and government have caused U.S. mortgage bonds to
Rates were down .25% last week, regaining much of the .375% rise of early-February. The North-African/Middle-Eastern uprising against dictators spread from Egypt to oil-producing Libya. Tensions grew last week as their leader Muammar Gaddafi fired repeatedly on his own citizens and made even crazier public statements than Charlie Sheen, the self-proclaimed man with fire-breathing fists.
Rates were down .25% last week, regaining much of the .375% rise of early-February. The North-African/Middle-Eastern uprising against dictators spread from Egypt to oil-producing Libya. Tensions grew last week as their leader Muammar Gaddafi fired repeatedly on his own citizens and made even crazier public statements than Charlie Sheen, the self-proclaimed man with fire-breathing fists.
Rates rose .375% last week, which means $116 more per month on a $500,000 loan. Below is a brief explanation of why this happened and what to expect next week. Let’s back up to Friday, January 28 to explain why rates spiked. That day, GDP showed the economy grew 3.2% in 4Q2010, a nice improvement
This morning’s January jobs report is confusing because only 36,000 non-farm payrolls were added yet unemployment dropped significantly from 9.4% to 9%. Mortgages sold heavily on the unemployment figure, pushing rates up to 5.125% for single family loans to $417k—larger loans and condo loans are higher. But rates rising .375% this week isn’t just from
This morning’s January jobs report is confusing because only 36,000 non-farm payrolls were added yet unemployment dropped significantly from 9.4% to 9%. Mortgages sold heavily on the unemployment figure, pushing rates up to 5.125% for single family loans to $417k—larger loans and condo loans are higher. But rates rising .375% this week isn’t just from
Following this morning’s weaker-than-expected December jobs report, mortgage bonds are up 72 basis points, which brings 30yr fixed rates (on loans up to $417) back down below 5%—when bond prices rise on a rally, rates drop. The report showed 113,000 private sector jobs were gained, and the economy added about 1.3m private sector jobs in
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