The third and ‘final’ reading of 3Q2009 GDP came in today at +2.2%, and after four consecutive quarters of economic contraction (a 60yr record for consecutive GDP declines), this third reading makes positive economic growth official. The reading was a decline from +3.5% first reading and +2.8% second reading—the Bureau of Economic Analysis said “the
Consumer Spending
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were 0.3% in October and 0.2% year-over-year through October. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index for October was +0.2% and +1.4% YOY through October. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because
The second reading of 3Q2009 GDP came in today at +2.8%, and after four consecutive quarters of economic contraction (a 60yr record for consecutive GDP declines), 3Q shows a rebound in this second of three readings, but not as significant as the first report of 3.5%—the Bureau of Economic Analysis said “the revision mainly reflected
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were 0.1% in September and -0.6% year-over-year through September. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index for September was unchanged at +0.1% and +1.3% YOY through September. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy
Advance 3Q2009 GDP came in today at +3.5%, and after four consecutive quarters of economic contraction (a 60yr record for consecutive GDP declines), 3Q shows a significant rebound in this first of three readings—the next reading will be November 24. Consumer spending typically accounts for two-thirds of GDP and while personal consumption expenditures increased +3.4%
Advance 3Q2009 GDP came in today at +3.5%, and after four consecutive quarters of economic contraction (a 60yr record for consecutive GDP declines), 3Q shows a significant rebound in this first of three readings—the next reading will be November 24. Consumer spending typically accounts for two-thirds of GDP and while personal consumption expenditures increased +3.4%
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were 0.3% in August and -0.5% year-over-year through August. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index for August was +0.1% and +1.3% YOY through August. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because
“Most of the stuff people worry about ain’t never gonna happen anyway.” But in this case, I bet a change will be made. Everyone knows the drill: small originators sell loans to mid-tier investors such as AmTrust or Franklin American, who in turn sell their loans to companies like Wells, Chase, Bank of America, or
“Most of the stuff people worry about ain’t never gonna happen anyway.” But in this case, I bet a change will be made. Everyone knows the drill: small originators sell loans to mid-tier investors such as AmTrust or Franklin American, who in turn sell their loans to companies like Wells, Chase, Bank of America, or
Final 2Q2009 GDP came in today at -0.7%, and combined with final 1Q2009 GDP of -6.4%, we’re now concluding our fourth consecutive quarter of economic contraction, something that hasn’t happened in more than 60 years. Consumer spending typically accounts for two-thirds of GDP, but personal consumption expenditures actually dropped -0.9% in the period and government
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were even in July and -0.8% year-over-year through July. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index for July was +0.1% and +1.4% YOY through July. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because
My father used to say, “It’s OK to kiss a nun, but don’t get into the habit.” Speaking of habits, the bond market has become accustomed to the Fed buying mortgages. What if they stopped? Federal Reserve President Lacker suggested the Fed may not need to spend the full amount it pledged ($1.25 trillion, for
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were +0.5% in June and -0.4% year-over-year through June. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index for June was +0.2% and +1.5% YOY through June. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because
Advance 2Q2009 GDP came in today at -1%, and combined with 1Q2009 GDP of -6.4%, we’re now entering into our fourth consecutive quarter of economic contraction, something that hasn’t happened in more than 60 years. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP, but this 2Q2009 GDP number doesn’t fully represent the severity of the situation—as
One week ago the Personal Income & Outlays report came out showing that consumers have been making a bit more and saving quite a bit more—we’re actually saving the most since records started 50 years ago. Of course this affects spending and as you can see from the charts below, spending has been anemic in
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were +0.1% in May and +0.1% year-over-year through May. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index for May was +0.1% and +1.8% YOY through May. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because
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