June Producer Inflation -Overall PPI Month/Month: -0.4% -Core PPI Month/Month: +0.3% -Overall PPI Year/Year: +7% -Core PPI Year/Year: +2.4% -Lower energy costs this month. This is also a time to remind that ‘Overall’ is a better macroeconomic indicator because it smooths out the volatility of energy and food prices. June Retail Sales -Overall Retail Sales [...]

One joy of having a 2 year old is how amazed he is by firefighters and astronauts. Highly technical, dangerous, and important professions that rarely can rise above finance and pop culture headlines. I’m as guilty as anyone, I didn’t even know about space shuttle Atlantis’ final mission until today. So for the kid and/or [...]

Consumer Inflation: CPI – Month/Month (overall) +0.2% CPI – Year/Year (overall) +3.6% CPI – Month/Month core (less food & energy) 0.3% CPI – Year/Year core (less food & energy) 1.5% Month/Month core is a tenth above “acceptable.” CPI details here. Mortgage Applications: Purchase Index – Week/Week Change 4.5 % Refinance Index – Week/Week Change 16.5 [...]

Retail sales dropped 0.2% in May, the first drop in 11 months, but economists were expecting a 0.4% to 0.5% drop so stocks are rallying on the news plus some favorable earnings today (S&P 500 +16 to 1288). Meanwhile rates are up as mortgage bonds sell sharply (FNMA 4% coupon -62 basis points) on inflation [...]

Rates set a new 2011 low Wednesday, June 8 then rose slightly as mortgage bonds sold off of overbought levels—rates rise when bond prices drop in a selloff. Still, rates ended the week very low as uncertain U.S. recovery drives investors into bonds. Rates dropped early last week because: (1) a weak jobs report weighed [...]

The good news is that rates begin the May 16 trading week near 2011 lows. The bad news is that it’s because of a frail economy. Rates drop when bond prices rise, and mortgage bonds have rallied the last four weeks on lower home prices, weak GDP, and low core inflation. Bonds are topped out [...]

Stocks are up slightly and bonds are even today after slightly higher consumer inflation and better than expected pending home sales reports are washing each other out. This even-rate, higher-stock mood kicks off a big week of inflation, home price, and employment data that could push rates up. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the [...]

Rates ended last week even, with 30yr fixed loans settling at 4.875% after a wild ride. Bond traders face tough choices right now: sell (rates rise) because rising oil and commodities are causing inflation? Or buy (rates drop) because bonds are a safe haven from turmoil in Libya? The tough choices are compounded when Libyan [...]

Flat consumer inflation and higher business inflation are canceling each other out this morning, leading to relatively flat mortgage bond trading. The result is rates (on 30yr fixed loans up to $417k) that are holding about 4.875%. We’ll discuss the debate between higher business inflation and flat consumer inflation throughout this week. For now here’s [...]