MBA Mortgage Applications for week ending 8/5 -Purchase Index Week/Week: -0.9% -Refinance Index Week/Week: +30.4% -Composite Index Week/Week: +21.7 -Refinance index driven up by very low rates. -Purchase index indicates that housing is still quite soft. Yesterday’s FOMC statement that interest rates would remain low for the next two years was a reaction to the
MBAA
Jobs ADP private jobs for July +114,000. It is hard to get an accurate estimate for Friday’s BLS jobs report from the ADP report, and BLS is what counts. Last month BLS private jobs was 100,000 less than ADP. Also, it is likely that there will be a continuing loss of public jobs at the
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ending 7/22) -Purchase Index Week/Week: -3.8% -Refinance Index Week/Week: -5.5% -Composite Index Week/Week: -5.0% -Refi apps fell to 69.6% of total apps from 70.1% the previous week -The Purchase Index indicates that July home sales are likely to be weak -Four-week moving average for all apps was down 0.3% Durable Goods
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ending 7/22) -Purchase Index Week/Week: -3.8% -Refinance Index Week/Week: -5.5% -Composite Index Week/Week: -5.0% -Refi apps fell to 69.6% of total apps from 70.1% the previous week -The Purchase Index indicates that July home sales are likely to be weak -Four-week moving average for all apps was down 0.3% Durable Goods
Today’s links on loan limits, debt ceiling options, U.S. and Europe’s debt quagmires, Finreg year 1, trading don’ts, and your best source for NFL news. -‘Sacred AAA Rating’ At Risk Even Without Default (InvestmentNews) -Debt Ceiling Charade: The 3 Smart Options (CalculatedRisk) -“Impossible Math” behind Euro Crisis (PragmaticCapitalist) -Mortgage Bankers Reverse Course On Loan Limits
Existing Home Sales -4.77m annual rate for June, down from 7.08m 2005 peak -Down 0.8% since May and down 8.8% since June 2010 -Median home price $184,300, up 0.8% from June 2010. -Distressed homes accounted for 30% of June sales -Inventory rose 3.3% to 3.77 million existing homes for sale -This is a 9.5-month supply
The popular press continues to point out that while a record share of Americans want to buy homes, both U.S. government and corporate policies (often working at cross-purposes) are making it more difficult. Of course, it is Wells or Chase or the servicer who bear the brunt of the liability if the loan “goes south,”
MBA Mortgage Applications -Purchase Index: Week/Week +4.8% -Refinance Index: Week/Week -9.2% -Composite Index: Week/Week -5.2% -Rising Treasury and mortgage rates were responsible for refi dip. Retail Sales -ICSC-Goldman: week/week +1.5% -ICSC-Goldman: year/year +3.5% -Redbook: year/year +5.2% Economic Activity In Non-Manufacturing Sector –June ISM non-manufacturing index down to 53.3 vs 54.6 in May -Reading above 50
MBA Mortgage Applications -Purchase Index: Week/Week +4.8% -Refinance Index: Week/Week -9.2% -Composite Index: Week/Week -5.2% -Rising Treasury and mortgage rates were responsible for refi dip. Retail Sales -ICSC-Goldman: week/week +1.5% -ICSC-Goldman: year/year +3.5% -Redbook: year/year +5.2% Economic Activity In Non-Manufacturing Sector –June ISM non-manufacturing index down to 53.3 vs 54.6 in May -Reading above 50
MBA Mortgage Applications -Purchase Index: Week/Week -3.0% -Refinance Index: Week/Week -2.6% -Composite Index: Week/Week -2.7% – This makes it a bit harder to disguise the error in yesterday’s media fiction that the housing market was looking good. On the other hand… NAR Pending Home Sales for May -Pending Home Sales Index: 88.8 -Pending Home Sales
April FHFA Single Family Home Price Index: -Month/Month: 0.8%, first gain since May 2010 -Year/Year: -5.7% -Prices 19.3% below April 2007 peak -Prices roughly same as January 2004 –Full report tracks prices of homes with Fannie/Freddie loans Mortgage Applications: -Purchases Week/Week: -2.8% -Refinances Week/Week: -7.2% -Composite Index Week/Week: -5.9% FOMC: The FOMC rate policy decision
Bernanke’s speech yesterday presented a sober view of the economy. The most important line (since it is under direct control of the Fed) was “The [Federal Open Market] Committee also continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.” MBA Mortgage Applications:
Given yesterday’s economic numbers, suddenly the market thinks that the US is heading into another recession. Well, it’s not exactly a recession … yet. But many argue that, since housing and jobs are languishing, the economy never came out of its doldrums to begin with. Bloomberg’s Caroline Baum wrote last week that the yield curve
Jobs ADP Jobs +38,000 ADP Jobs is an early indicators of BLS which will be out Friday. ADP is weighted to private sector jobs and with public sector jobs declining this is not good news. Mortgage Applications Week-to-week changes in applications last week – Purchase Index – 0.0 % – Refinance Index -5.7 % –
Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications: – Purchase Index – Week/Week Change +1.5 % – Refinance Index – Week/Week Change +0.9 % – Composite Index – Week/Week Change +1.1 % Home Prices: FHFA House Price Index was -0.3% in March (these are prices on homes that have loans backed by Fannie & Freddie) Durable Goods Orders:
Yesterday I summarized new Finreg rules requiring banks to retain at least 5% of loans they sell into secondary markets, and outlined which Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) loans will be exempt from this rule. The exemption debate rages, and here’s the Mortgage Bankers Association’s “profound concerns” on the matter. The QRM proposals are now open
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