It’s very early, but this is my favorite candidate gaffe of the 2012 election so far. Mitt Romney last week talking about his economic plan (video below, starting at 2:00): “It’s about 150 pages with 59 different policy ideas. If you don’t happen to get on in your hand, you can go on Amazon Kindle,
September 2011
Retail Sales (August) -Retail Sales – Month/Month unchanged -Retail Sales less autos – Month/Month change +0.1 % -This is not good. Only the consumer can get GDP going and the consumer is overleveraged, unemployed or concerned. Unless it causes consumer spending to increase, anything done in D.C. is for naught. Business Inflation (PPI) -PPI –
Inflation Data on Import/Export prices showed inflation of oil and food prices tamed from the damaging increases caused, in part, by QE II. Export Prices – Month/Month +0.5 % Export Prices – Year/Year +9.6 % Import Prices – Month/Month -0.4 % Import Prices – Year/Year +13.0 % Retail Sales ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Week/Week +1.3 %
There are no significant fundamentals today. There are large Treasury debt auctions this week. When these occur folks look at bid-to-cover ratios and indirect participation. These are indicators of demand and foreign participation. PPI (Wednesday), CPI (Thursday) and Industrial Production (Thursday) headline. The 500 pound gorilla is still the Greek debt issue. A default will
Wholesale Inventories (July) Inventories month/month were +0.8%. This bit of data reflects the fact that we saw that increase in discretionary consumer spending in the Consumer Metrics data of early July. At the open, markets did not react positively to the President’s jobs speech. My own humble opinion is that most folks realize that the
Quick note to offer respect and thanks to all The Basis Point’s readers. Posting a bit light this week due to travel (and some tough deals I’ll be discussing). Stay tuned, good stuff coming next week, including posts for two of my favorite mortgage media machines: National Mortgage Pro and MortgageNewsDaily.
Initial Jobless Claims -414,000 for week ended September 3 -Up 2,000 from previous week’s revised 412,000 (was 409k) -4-week Moving Average 414,750, up 3750 from previous week -Going the wrong way. Chart below Trade Balance (July) Trade Balance for July was -$44.9 billion. The is the (X-M) component of GDP. The Trade deficit was smaller
You’re a car maker with an eight-figure ad budget and access to the most creative minds on the planet, and your tagline is “designed for driving” ?? Nice work BMW, you win un-smart quote of the day.
Germany’s highest court upheld Germany’s decision to contribute to the 2010 Greek bailout. The EU survived another test. U.S. mortgage bonds selling this morning, pushing rates up a bit. Mortgage Applications (week ending 9/2) -Purchase Index, Week/Week: +0.2% -Refinance Index, Week/Week: -6.3% -Composite Index, Week/Week: -4.9% -With rates near record lows I would have though
Today’s Originations links are dedicated to explaining the Fed’s Operation Twist. TheBasisPoint’s link focuses on mortgage rate impacts. -Operation Twist vs. Quantitative Easing (TheBasisPoint) -What You Need To Know About Operation Twist (BI) -Fed’s Next Move: Operation Twist (CNBC) -Why Operation Twist Won’t Work (Minyanville) -TRUE: Operation Twist Named After Dance Craze (Video Below)
ISM Service Sector -Index for August was 53.3 vs. 52.7 in July. -Readings above 50 signal expansion in non-manufacturing sectors -Ten of the 18 service sectors reported growth. -U.S. service sector employs about 4 of every 5 U.S. workers. -Prices spiked, continuing a 25mo trend –Full report Last Friday the yield on the 10-year Treasury
The current extent of economic malaise has been greatly underestimated. I once again turn to Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute to explain. When we measure GDP we always adjust it for inflation. We want the economy to be growing because more good and services are purchased by comsumers, companies and the government not because the
[Critical Loan Limit Update on 11/18/2011] Banks stopped accepting rate locks on high-balance conforming loans to $729,750 in early September because these loans must close before loan limits drop on October 1. Below are new loan limits as of October 1 and approximate rate spreads between each tier: Tier 1-TRUE CONFORMING: Lowest rates for loans
Rates dropped .125% last week. This after dropping three straight weeks beginning July 25 then staying flat two weeks. The downtrend began with awful Q2 (and Q1 revised) GDP, then a mediocre-at-best July jobs report, then S&P’s U.S. downgrade. Below are specifics on this rate downtrend, plus September’s rate outlook. RECORD LOW FOR 10YR NOTE
Today’s Originations links are dedicated to jobs, Obama’s jobs speech this Thursday 9/8, and the politicizing of jobs. -Regs & Taxes Not Killing Small Business, Owners Say (McLatchy) -Obama’s Jobs Speech To Conflict With NFL Opener (ESPN) -What Can Obama Do To Create Jobs? (WashingtonPost) -Obama: Jobs At Risk In ‘Gamesmanship’ (Bloomberg) -8 in 10
Next week’s snapshot below, click image for details. WeeklyBasis rate market recap/outlook coming shortly.
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