May 2014

 

GDP 1stQ2014 2nd Assessment – Real GDP quarter/quarter -1.0%. Previous estimate was +0.1% – GDP price index quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized)  +1.3%. Previous was +1.3. 4thQ2013 GDP was +2.6%.  Final sales of domestic goods in 1stQ2014 gained 0.6% after a 2.7% gain in 4thQ2014. This is important because it is the key datum describing how

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MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/23/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -1.0% . Previous weeks were -3.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, and +9.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, -4.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -8.0%, -1.0%, -and 3.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -1.2%. Previous weeks

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Durable Goods Orders (April 2014) – New Orders month/month +0.8%. Previous was +3.6% – Ex-transportation month/month +0.1%. Previous was +2.9% FHFA House Price Index (March 2014) – Month/Month change +0.7%. Previous was +0.5%. This data is for homes purchased with FNMA or FHLMC loans. S&P Case-Shiller HPI (March 2014) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted, Month/Month +0.9%.

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New Home Sales (April 2014) – New Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 433,000. Previous was 407,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2014 was $275,800; the average sales price was $320,100.  The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 192,000.  This represents a supply

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New Home Sales (April 2014) – New Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 433,000. Previous was 407,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2014 was $275,800; the average sales price was $320,100.  The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 192,000.  This represents a supply

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Jobless Claims (week ended 5/17/2014) – Initial Claims 326,000. Previous was 298,000 – 4-week Moving Average 322,500. Previous was 323,500.   Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index – Index -0.32.  Previous was +0.34. This is an index which attempts to get a measure on GDP.  Whether the step backward is a one month thing or

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Jobless Claims (week ended 5/17/2014) – Initial Claims 326,000. Previous was 298,000 – 4-week Moving Average 322,500. Previous was 323,500.   Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index – Index -0.32.  Previous was +0.34. This is an index which attempts to get a measure on GDP.  Whether the step backward is a one month thing or

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MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/16/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, and -4.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were +7.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, -4.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -8.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, and +10.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +0.9%. Previous weeks were

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MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/16/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, and -4.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were +7.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, -4.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -8.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, and +10.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +0.9%. Previous weeks were

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ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 5/17/2014) – Store Sales week/week -1.3%. Previous was -0.1% – Store Sales year/year +2.4%. Previous was +3.9% Redbook Store Sales (week ended 5/17/2014) – Store Sales year/year +3.9%. Previous was +4.2% The Consumer Metrics Daily Absolute Demand Index a near real time measure of online spending had been down since

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ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 5/17/2014) – Store Sales week/week -1.3%. Previous was -0.1% – Store Sales year/year +2.4%. Previous was +3.9% Redbook Store Sales (week ended 5/17/2014) – Store Sales year/year +3.9%. Previous was +4.2% The Consumer Metrics Daily Absolute Demand Index a near real time measure of online spending had been down since

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MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/9/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +9.0%, -4.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, and -6.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +7.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, -7.0%, -4.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -8.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +10.0%, and -11.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +3.6%. Previous weeks were

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ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 5/10/2014) – Store Sales week/week -0.1%. Previous was -2.0% – Store Sales year/year +3.9%. Previous was +2.0% Redbook (week ended 5/10/2014) – Store Sales year/year +4.2%. Previous was +4.4%. Retail Sales  (April 2014) – Retail Sales month/month +0.1%. Previous was +1.5% – Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.0%. Previous was

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Wholesale Trade  (April 2014) -Inventories month/month +1.1%.  Previous was +0.7%. This is important because it is a GDP component.  We had seen decreasing inventories as a response to consumer demand being less than anticipated. This represents increase business optimism but it is ultimately consumer spending which drives the entire economy. JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor

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MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/25/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +9.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -6.0%, and -5.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were -7.0%, -4.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -8.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, and -3.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +5.3%. Previous weeks were

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