Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were -1.1% in in November and +1.4% year-over-year through November. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index for November was 0% (also 0% for October) and +1.9% YOY through November. The record 1.1% fall in November reflects not
PCE Deflator
Rates Affected by Market and Lender Forces Is it a safe bet to say that, “rates in the short term will be choppy as the market adjusts to all this news, but then slowly trending lower”? Somewhat – but the downside is limited, since short term Treasury rates are already near 0%. Yes, mortgage rates
October PCE -0.5% As Inflation Dies, Consumer Spending -1%, New Home Sales -5.3%, Median Price $218k
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were -0.5% in October and +3.2% year-over-year through October. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE for October was unchanged and +2.0% YOY through October. Here’s a link to complete PCE numbers for 3Q2008. The Fed tends to look at
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were +0.1% in September and +4.1% year-over-year through September. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE for September was +0.1% and +2.3% YOY through September. Below are the numbers for the third quarter. Overall PCE Third Quarter: Sept-Mo= +0.1%, Aug-Mo=
The mother asks the son what he wants to be for Halloween. “I want to be real scary. I want to be Freddie”. The mom replies, “Freddie Krueger? From ‘Nightmare on Elm Street’?” “No”, the boy replies, “Freddie Mac, from ‘Nightmare on Main Street’.’” Mortgage Applications Doing OK, But For How Long? Although nationwide apps
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were unchanged for August and +4.4% year over year through August (July overall PCE was 0.5%/mo and +4.5%). Overall means that the number includes prices for food and gas. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was +0.2% for August and +2.4% year
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were +0.5% for July and +4.5% year over year, which was the highest monthly spike since February 1981. Overall means that the number includes prices for food and gas. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was +0.2% for July and +2.4% year
I know that I’ve been in the mortgage banking business too long when my children start using the trendy mortgage-banker phrases. The other day I asked my daughter to clean up her room, and she replied, “Dad, let’s circle back on this tomorrow – I have other things to do. And then we can close
LENDER LOAN LOCK FALLOUT A few weeks ago I was out with a gal. When I asked her about her social life, she replied, “Hah! Do you think if I had a social life, I’d be here with you?” And then she asked if she could have a few bites of my surf & turf
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures were +0.8% for June and +4.1% year over year through June, which was the highest monthly spike in 27 years. Overall means that the number includes prices for food and gas. The Core PCE which excludes food and energy was +0.3% for June and +2.3% year over year. The Fed excludes
The price of a standard admission Walt Disney World in Florida rose to $75 per day, up from $71 since August 2007. A child’s ticket, which previously sold for $60, rose to $63. Will this be the final inflation straw that pushes the Fed to increase overnight rates tomorrow? Doubtful, and there is no word
The Consumer Price Index is probably the most widely watched consumer inflation gauge, but the Fed watches Personal Consumption Expenditures the closest and May PCE came in at +0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%. This is a “core” reading which excludes food and energy expenditures, and it brought the May-to-May inflation rate to 2.1%. Given the
Waiting for that big inheritance? Don’t hold your breath. According to figures compiled by the Tiburon Strategic Advisors and the Wall Street Journal, and published in their Saturday June 14th edition, 25% of workers believe that they will need less than $250,000 for retirement (although 23% have a goal of having $500-$999k). The median value
Fixed and ARM rates are up about .2% over the past two weeks. Rates were actually higher as recently as last Thursday because higher consumer and producer inflation data caused bond markets to sell off, pushing yields up. But then renewed credit crunch woes started coming back into the picture. This week it’s been led
How did it get to be the last business day of May already? If you’re sitting at your desk, and the receptionist, with wide eyes, stammers, “Line 2 is the FBI – they want to talk to you!” should you be nervous? Perhaps, or perhaps not, especially if the FBI are looking for help on
Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds closed above 4% today for the first time since January. In a broader perspective, this is largely a bet that the Fed will hike rates soon. The Fed next meets on June 24 & 25, and markets are looking for signs of what the Fed will do with rates, and
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