Rates are higher this week as mortgage bonds are in their fourth straight day of losses today, and have broken below a critical layer of support at the 200 day moving average. Rates rise when bond prices drop like this. Bonds are losing and stocks gaining on the following factors: (1) Greece passed budget cuts
June 2011
Initial Jobless Claims – 428,000 for week ended June 25, down 1,000 from previous week – 4-week moving average 426,750, up 500 from previous week -Better than last week but worse than consensus. -Despite Keynesian spending and extremely accommodative monetary policy, the jobs market and the economy are still in bad shape. If we are
-First, Blame The Lenders (TheBigPicture) -Fed Bails Out The Banks Again (CreditSlips) -Bad Mortgages Weigh On Banks (WSJ’s Nick Timiraos) -15 Worst Housing Markets Next 5 Years (BusinessInsider) -TABLE: U.S. Debt & Presidents Responsible For It (TheTrader) -3 Mistakes Every Entrepreneur Can Learn From (VentureBeat) -89% View Homeownership As Part of American Dream (CalculatedRisk)
Bank of America is near an $8.5b settlement with a group of non-agency investors on rep-and-warranty-related issues: 226 deals, of which 15 are re-REMICs. The remaining 211 deals have a current balance outstanding of $79 billion and original balance of $178 billion. As such, the $8.5b of settlement translates into 10.8% of the current balance
MBA Mortgage Applications -Purchase Index: Week/Week -3.0% -Refinance Index: Week/Week -2.6% -Composite Index: Week/Week -2.7% – This makes it a bit harder to disguise the error in yesterday’s media fiction that the housing market was looking good. On the other hand… NAR Pending Home Sales for May -Pending Home Sales Index: 88.8 -Pending Home Sales
-BofA’s $8.5b Bad Loan Settlement (Bloomberg) -INFOGRAPHIC: Forex Market Basics (TradingHabits) -China’s Top Auditor Warns of Local Gov’t Defaults (Mish) -REAL TIME GREEK AUSTERITY VOTE TRACKER (ZeroHedge) -QE3 Advocate Krugman Sits Down With HousingWire (HousingWire) -A Word On Unemployment (MarginalRevolution via TheMoneyIllusion)
U.S. stocks rallied today (Dow +145.13, S&P +16.57) and bonds lost big (10yr note -91 bps, FNMA 4% -53 bps) as monthly U.S. home prices gained, and markets perceived progress on Greece’s vote to hike taxes and cut public pay as a condition of their next bailout payment. The budget vote is tomorrow and citizens
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence as measured by the Conference Board fell to 58.5. This is a survey not hard data and all too often is associated with high visibility items such as gasoline prices. With Personal Spending flat (see comments of yesterday) and Final Sales of Domestic Products moved down to +0.6% (annualized) it certainly
Is it just me or is it insane that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau follows zero people on Twitter? Maybe it’s due to lack of resources of an agency under fire since pre-inception, but still … it’s pretty overt disengagement from those you’re trying to represent. CFPB take note: the 5294 people following you so
-When Does Double Dip Become Just Another Recession (Bespoke) -The Debt Crisis Isn’t A Final Destination (Depew, Minyanville) -Low End Housing Sees Higher Losses (CNBC’s Diana Olick) -House Prices Through 2015 (KCM Blog via MacroMarkets) -10 Things Your Neighbors Won’t Tell You (SmartMoney) -China Property Bust Impact On Other Markets (Ritholtz)
In May, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau posted new Good Faith Estimates for public and industry feedback. Today they posted the second draft of the new consumer mortgage disclosures after receiving more than 13,000 comments. These are what consumers will be given by lenders to explain loan terms and quote rates, so consumers and industry
Tomorrow’s April S&P Case Shiller home price report is the most widely followed and respected barometer of its kind. But like all datasets, there’s lots of fine print that’s overlooked by media and markets. As good as Case Shiller is compared to other home value sources like Zillow, real estate valuations are highly-localized and it
Doing some catch-up reading on vacation this week, and here’s one worth sharing. Mauldin’s June 17 piece was a reprint of Nouriel Roubini’s June 13 case for why the odds of a Eurozone breakup are at least one-third over a five-year time horizon. John Mauldin, expressing his anxiety, thinks “Dr. Doom’s” timeline is optimistic. Roubini
Doing some catch-up reading on vacation this week, and here’s one worth sharing. Mauldin’s June 17 piece was a reprint of Nouriel Roubini’s June 13 case for why the odds of a Eurozone breakup are at least one-third over a five-year time horizon. John Mauldin, expressing his anxiety, thinks “Dr. Doom’s” timeline is optimistic. Roubini
NY Mag says premier in September. Can’t wait. Best show on TV.
-LA Dodgers File For Bankruptcy (LA Times) -Interest Rates Must Rise Globally (Reuters) -Web usage: Facebook vs. Rest of Web (AllstarCharts) -US Teachers Work Longest Hours (RealTimeEconomics) -End of QE2 Means Surge of Treasury Issuance (ZeroHedge) -Turntable.fm: 2011’s Most Exciting Social Service (TheNextWeb) -Forget Farmville, Now Your Can Sell Weed On Facebook (Mashable) -False Profits
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