Fundamentals 6/30: Weak Jobs, Better Manufacturing

Initial Jobless Claims
– 428,000 for week ended June 25, down 1,000 from previous week
– 4-week moving average 426,750, up 500 from previous week
-Better than last week but worse than consensus.
-Despite Keynesian spending and extremely accommodative monetary policy, the jobs market and the economy are still in bad shape. If we are out of recession than what we are in is a prolonged slump.

Chicago Area Manufacturing
ISM Chicago June Index 61.1
-Up from 56.6 last month, better than expectations of 54
-Index readings above 50 signal expansion
-This is a combination survey and hard data look at business conditions
-It represents what business not the consumer is thinking and doing
-Business optimism usually outpaces consumer optimism