Archive for July, 2011

Don’t Torpedo Your Own Country Just To Make A Point

Holy moly, I just read Josh Brown’s Traitors post on the Washington circus and blown away. Media has been pretty much reduced to rants and sound arguments and never the two shall meet. Until today. Bravo Josh.

Obama & Boehner: Glum and Glummer

This Economist photo sums up the mood in Washington well, and the article sums up the debt debate well.

Economic Calendar August 1-5

Snapshot of next week, click image for details. WeeklyBasis review of last week, outlook for next week to follow.

Mortgage Rates: Week Ended July 29

CONFORMING RATES ($200,000 to $417,000) 0 POINT 30 Year: 4.5% (4.62% APR) FHA 30 Year: 4.25% (4.37% APR) 5/1 ARM: 3.125% (3.245% APR) SUPER-CONFORMING RATES ($417,001 to $729,750 cap by county) 0 POINT 30 Year: 4.625% (4.745% APR) FHA 30 Year: 4.375% (4.495% APR) 5/1 ARM: 3.625% (3.745% APR) JUMBO RATES ($729,751 to $2,00,000) 1 […]

Rate Dip!

What a week in rate markets. Radical swings up and down until yesterday, then two huge mortgage bond rallies Thursday and today, pushing rates net down on the week. And now mortgage bonds are squarely above 25 and 50 day moving averages that were stubborn overhead resistance until yesterday. Rates drop when bond prices rise […]

Why rates haven’t risen on threat of downgrade

Given the inability for our elected officials to send a budget to the president, the bond market seems focused on three developments: “(1) A downgrade of Treasuries by at least one ratings agency. (2) A more prolonged downdraft in economic activity, caused in no small part by the uncertainty raised by the debt issues. (3) […]

Fundamentals 7/29: Awful GDP Trend

GDP -2Q2011 GDP at +1.3% vs. 0.4% for 1Q2010 (revised down from 1.9%) -This 1st of three readings worse than low expectations -Second revision August 26 –Full report here. -In light of fiscal and monetary policy, this report is dismal -The heart of this report is this sentence: “Real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1 percent […]

What investors are telling clients about debt ceiling

This note just came through from an investment advisor I’ve worked with for years. This is what he’s telling clients, and I mostly agree except for “relative calm” in bond markets. The daily swings in MBS trading this week have been giant. But volatility aside, rates are about net even on the week so far: […]

New Names For The Great Recession

Today Weakonomics proposes some new names to replace The Great Recession. Worth the read, link below. To this post I’ll also add three items: one suggestion for a new name to describe the state of the U.S., and two of my favorite pop culture economic labeling riffs of recent years. (1) Nation Declined. Which has […]

What happens to Fannie, Freddie, Rates in budget impasse?

What happens to Fannie, Freddie and mortgage bond/rate markets in a budget stalemate? Under the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, if an Enterprise’s liabilities exceed its assets under GAAP the Treasury provides sufficient capital to eliminate that deficit in exchange for senior preferred stock. Fannie and Freddie have received capital from the Treasury […]

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