THE BASIS POINT

Jobless Claims low but Employment/Population Ratio Falls.

 

Jobless Claims (Week ended 3/39/2014)

– New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 326,000. Previous was 310,000

– 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted) 319,500. Previous was 319,250

– New Claims (unadjusted) were 289,535 an increase of 15,463 from the previous week.

Jobless Claims are encouragingly low.

Challenger Job-Cut Report (March 2014)

– Announced Layoffs 34,399. Previous month was 41,835.

Gallup US Payroll to Population (March 2014)

– Payroll to Population ration was 42.7. Previous was 43.1

This tracks the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older that is employed full time by an employer for at least 30 hours per week.  This is similar to the Labor Participation Rate we will see in tomorrow’s BLS Employment Situation Report.

The fact that this is declining is critical.  This is much more important than the Unemployment rate which gets the headlines.  Part of the decline is due to an aging population and part of it is due to the jobs market itself which sees continued offshoring of jobs and too many people not having the skills for the jobs which are there.

The importance here is that those working produce the revenue to pay for Social Security, Medicare and over $1 trillion a year of means-based welfare spending.

International Trade (February 2014)

– Trade Deficit $42.3 billion.  Previous was $39.3 billion.

PMI Services Index  (March 2014)

– Level 55.3. Previous was 53.3.

This is a survey index of the service economy.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index  (March 2014)

– Composite Index 53.1. Previous was 53.3.

This also is a survey index and is moving in the opposite direction from the PMI Services Index.  Both show a growing economy.

 

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