THE BASIS POINT

Jobless Claims low but Payroll/Population down.

 

Jobless Claims (week ended 11/1/2014)

– New Claims 278,000. Previous was 288,000
– 4-week Moving Average  279,000. Previous was 281,250.

 
Challenger Job-Cut Report (October 2014)

– Announced Layoffs  51,183. Previous was 30,477.

 
Gallup US Payroll to Population (October 2014)

– Payroll to Population Ratio 44.4%. Previous was 44.8%.

This is akin to the Labor Participation Rate in tomorrow’s BLS Employment Situation Report. The fact that a smaller percentage of the population is working is of serious consequence.  Lack of sensible planning by the Federal government means that somehow a smaller percentage of the population has to provide the tax basis for an ever increasing number of people on Medicare and Social Security.  The decline in the Labor Participation Rate is partly demographic and partly due to the fact that we are not creating enough jobs to even keep the Labor Participation rate flat.

 

Productivity and Costs (3rdQ2014)

– Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized)  +2.0%. Previous was +2.9%
– Unit labor costs quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized)  +0.3%. Previous was -0.5%.

 

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