THE BASIS POINT

Import/Export Prices Continue Lower.

 

Retail Sales (October 2014)

– Retail Sales month/month  +0.3%. Previous -0.3%.
– Retail Sales less autos  month/month +0.3%. Previous  -0.2%.
– Less Autos & Gas  month/month -0.6%. Previous +0.1%.

Import and Export Prices (October 2014)

– Export Prices month/month  -1.0%. Previous was -0.4%
– Export Prices year/year  -0.8%. Previous was -0.2%.
– Import Prices month/month -1.3%. Previous was -0.5%
– Import Prices year/year   -1.8% . Previous was -0.9%.

I am not on board with the notion that we are having a deflationary problem.  Lower prices are good for individuals and it is individuals who buy stuff.  Expanded money supply from the Fed and other central banks would normally be inflationary.  These lower prices are a consequence of softer demand in Europe and higher domestic oil production lessening the need for imported oil.

Consumer Sentiment (November 2014)

– University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 89.9.  Previous was 86.9.

The last time this Index was this high was before the recession.

Business Inventories (September 2014)

– Inventories month/month +0.3%.  Previous was +0.1%.

This is a GDP component.

 

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