Weak Retail Sales.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/9/2014)

– Purchase Index Week/Week +24.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -10.0%, +12.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, and -1.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week +66.0%. Previous weeks were -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, -13%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -11.0% -6.0%, -7.0%, and +23.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week +49.1%. Previous weeks were -9.1%, +0.9%, -3.3%, +7.3%, -7.3%, -4.3%, +4.9%, -0.9%, -2.6%, -6.6%, and +11.6%.

 

 
Retail Sales (December 2014)

– Retail Sales month/month  -0.9%. Previous was +0.4%
– Retail Sales less autos month/month -1.0%. Previous was +0.1%
– Less Autos & Gas month/month -0.3%. Previous was +0.6%.

This report does not square with reports of higher Consumer Confidence which is supposed to be a leading indicator of spending and it does not square with the elation over the “Happy Days

Are Here Again” reporting of the +5.0% 3rdQ2014 GDP.

 
Import and Export Prices  (December 2014)

– Export Prices month/month -1.2%. Previous was -0.8%
– Export Prices year/year -3.2%.
– Import Prices month/month -2.5%. Previous was -2.5%
– Import Prices year/year -5.5%.

Import prices are down because of the drop in the price of crude oil.  Export prices are down because of softness of the EU economy.

 

Business Inventories  (November 2014)

– Inventories month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%.

This is a GDP component.  Since it is getting too far ahead of Retail Sales it should correct.

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