Retail Sales/ Inventories Indicate GDP Growth.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/8/2015)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted 274,000. Previous was 269,000
– New Claims unadjusted, totaled 239,899 an increase of 15,795 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 266,250. Previous was 268,000.

 

 
Retail Sales (July 2015)

– Retail Sales month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.0%
– Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%
– Less Autos & Gas month/month  +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%.

The gains are an encouraging sign for 3rdQ2015 GDP.  Retail sales are about 70% of GDP.

 

 

Import & Export Prices  (July 2015)

– Export Prices month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.3%
– Export Prices year/year -6.1%. Previous was -5.7%
– Import Prices month/month -0.9%. Previous was -0.1%
– Import Prices year/year   -10.0%. Previous was -10.4%.

These changes are due to the strength of the US$.  Commodities which are a sizable part of both exports and imports are all priced in US$ and, as the dollar gains strength, the prices of commodities fall.  The stronger US dollar hurts GDP because it decreases exports and increases imports.  The more important effects are on countries such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia where the economy depends almost entirely on oil exports for survival.

 

Business Inventories (June 2015)

– Inventories month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.3%.

This is a component of GDP. This increase is another positive sign for 3rdQ2015 GDP.