Private Job Gains Weaker.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/29/2016)

– Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -1.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +0.2%, and -7.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week -6.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, +3.0%. +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, +16.0%, +16.0%, and +0.3%.

– Composite Index Week/Week -3.4%. Previous weeks were -4.1%, +1.3%, +10.0%, +2.7%, -1.0%, -3.3%, -3.3%, +0.2%, -4.8%, -4.3%, +8.2%, and +9.3%.

Purchase applications were up 13% year-on-year. Purchases seem to be stagnating as the buying season starts.

 
ADP Private Jobs (April 2016)

– Private Jobs +156,000. Previous was +194,000

We have weak GDP growth, weak retail and now it looks as if jobs the numerically hopeful part of the economy are being impacted.  While the recent jobs gains have looked OK the fact is that what we have been doing is adding low-paying jobs in retail and restaurants and bars while we are losing manufacturing jobs.  This explains why jobs grew while GDP stagnated.

 
PMI Services Index (April 2016)

– Index 52.8. Previous was 51.3/

This is the Purchasing Managers Index – a supply-side indicator.

 
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (April 2016)

– Composite Index  55.7. Previous was 54.5.

Another supply side survey index.
 
Factory Orders (March 2016)

– Factory Orders month/month +1.1%. Previous was revised to -1.9% from -1.7%.

Together these last 3 show some hope on the supply side.