Jobless Claims Remain low but…

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/17/2016)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted 252,000. Previous was 260,000
– New Claims unadjusted, totaled 205,751 an increase of 12,460 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 258,500. Previous was 260,750.

Initial Claims has remained near record lows but people getting laid off is not the largest part of the total jobs picture. While media have cheered recent BLS Employment Situation
Reports they have not, by any means been great.

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (August 2016)

– Level -0.55. Previous was 0.24
– 3 Month Moving Average -0.07. Previous was -0.09

This index is an average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity.

FHFA House Price Index (July 2016)

– month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.3%
– Year/Year +5.8%. Previous was +5.7%

This measures the prices of home purchased with FNMA/FHLMC loans.

 

Existing Home Sales (August 2016)

– Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 5,330.000. Previous was 5,380,000
– Existing Home Sales month/month -0.9%. Previous was -3.4%
– Existing Home Sales year/year +0.8%. Previous was -1.6%

Sales down, prices up – strange. Part of the reason prices are up is that the supply is thin. Housing Starts are still well below where they should be and some folks who might otherwise
move don’t do so because of tax consequences.

Leading Indicators (August 2016)

– Leading Indicators month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.5%

Another indicator of weak economic growth.

 

Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (September 2016)

– Level +6. Previous was -4