No Inflation.

Consumer Price Index (August 2014)

– CPI month/month (overall) -0.2%. Previous was +0.1%

– CPI year/year (overall)  +1.7%. Previous was +2.0%

– CPI month/month core (less food & energy)  +0.0%. Previous was +0.1%

– CPI year/year core (less food & energy) +1.7%. Previous was +1.9%.

This absence of any effect on inflation generated from expanded Monetary Base and as low as possible Fed rates will allow FOMC to announce that it will keep rates low longer.  The effect on GDP and jobs has been minimal.  The issue as to why such as expansion in  Monetary Base has had such a small effect of the economy will be debated and written about for years.

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 9/12/2014)

– Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, -0.4%, -1.0%, -1.0%. +0.2%, +0.3%, -8.0%, +4.0%, -1.0%, and -1.0%%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week +10.0%. Previous weeks were -11.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, -0.1%, +0.4%, and +0.1%.

– Composite Index Week/Week +7.9%. Previous weeks were -7.2%, +0.2%, +2.8%, +1.4%, -2.7%, +1.6%, -2.2%, +2.4%, -3.6%, +1.9%, and -0.2%.

The Purchase Index recovery is more about the fact that the prior week had a holiday than it is about the market.

 

NAHB Housing Market Index (September 2014)

– Housing Market Index 59. Previous was 55.

This is a survey index based on the responses of homebuilders and is relatively strong.  This needs to translate into Sales and Housing Starts to ne meaningful but it means that more people are looking.  What is disappointing is that more first time buyers are still not showing up to look at homes.