Reuters MBS guru Adam Quinones explains why there's more upside rate risk.
10yr Note
Technical analysis suggests we may have seen the lowest lows.
Mortgage rate chart 1971-PRESENT, and a discussion of where we go from here.
Our rate call for months was reached today.
Today's Originations linkfest: must-read housing and rate stories. Plus some fun stuff.
Critical insights on locking in mortgage rates.
"Risk free" Treasury investing of your $1m nest egg only earns $1500/mo.
Sunday Originations linkfest: current links plus some must-reads from past couple weeks.
No imminent EU solution means Treasury yields and mortgage rates may drop more.
Barclays co-head of interest rate strategy Michael Pond says the 10yr note will rise to 2.70 or 2.75 by year-end, which he says is fair value if economic data supports no recession—Bloomberg video below. He made two passing remarks about rates not rising this much if bond prices “get another bump from Europe” but was
Factory Orders -Factory Orders (August) were -0.2% -Previous was +2.4% -Consensus was -0.3% -Consumer was not keeping pace and we have seen supply-side data reveal that business is now bringing its thinking in line with the consumer. Retail Sales -ISCS-Goldman Store Sales, Week/Week: +0.1% -ISCS-Goldman Store Sales, Year/Year: +3.7% -Redbook Store Sales, Year/Year: +4.1%. Previous
Factory Orders -Factory Orders (August) were -0.2% -Previous was +2.4% -Consensus was -0.3% -Consumer was not keeping pace and we have seen supply-side data reveal that business is now bringing its thinking in line with the consumer. Retail Sales -ISCS-Goldman Store Sales, Week/Week: +0.1% -ISCS-Goldman Store Sales, Year/Year: +3.7% -Redbook Store Sales, Year/Year: +4.1%. Previous
There are no fundamentals today. Treasury yields are up slightly is early trading. Recall that a little over a month ago, we pointed to a technical objective of 3.0% on the 30-year and 1.5% on the 10-year. The 30-year overshot that and the 10-year has another 0.25% to go.
ISM Service Sector -Index for August was 53.3 vs. 52.7 in July. -Readings above 50 signal expansion in non-manufacturing sectors -Ten of the 18 service sectors reported growth. -U.S. service sector employs about 4 of every 5 U.S. workers. -Prices spiked, continuing a 25mo trend –Full report Last Friday the yield on the 10-year Treasury
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