Consumer Inflation: CPI – Month/Month (overall) +0.2% CPI – Year/Year (overall) +3.6% CPI – Month/Month core (less food & energy) 0.3% CPI – Year/Year core (less food & energy) 1.5% Month/Month core is a tenth above “acceptable.” CPI details here. Mortgage Applications: Purchase Index – Week/Week Change 4.5 % Refinance Index – Week/Week Change 16.5
CPI
The good news is that rates begin the May 16 trading week near 2011 lows. The bad news is that it’s because of a frail economy. Rates drop when bond prices rise, and mortgage bonds have rallied the last four weeks on lower home prices, weak GDP, and low core inflation. Bonds are topped out
The good news is that rates begin the May 16 trading week near 2011 lows. The bad news is that it’s because of a frail economy. Rates drop when bond prices rise, and mortgage bonds have rallied the last four weeks on lower home prices, weak GDP, and low core inflation. Bonds are topped out
Rates ended last week down .125% after mortgage bonds rallied huge Friday (FNMA 30yr 4% coupon +62 basis points) on tame March consumer inflation (CPI) data. Rates drop when bond prices rise on such a rally, and perception of low inflation encourages bond buying. But that perception is likely to be short-lived because, as discussed
The nuclear meltdown situation in Japan is no less dire today as helicopters and water cannons are now being used to cool fuel rods and prevent spreading of radioactive material, but after utter market panic yesterday caused stocks and rates to drop, they’ve now reversed course almost entirely (Dow +166, S&P +21, and FNMA 30yr
Consumer inflation was 0.4% for January and 0.2% if you strip out more volatile food and gas prices. On an annual basis, consumer inflation was also relatively flat at 1.6% total, and 1% excluding food and gas. All of these figures are tame, and this flat consumer inflation news has caused mortgage bonds to rally
China’s NBS site delivering “Server Too Busy” errors right now. Reminiscent of early crisis days when S&P servers started crashing on Case Shiller Home price release days. Anyway, consumer prices came in at +4.9% versus expectations of +5.3% and last month’s year-over-reading of 4.6%. And producer prices came in at +6.6% versus expectations of 6.4%
China’s NBS site delivering “Server Too Busy” errors right now. Reminiscent of early crisis days when S&P servers started crashing on Case Shiller Home price release days. Anyway, consumer prices came in at +4.9% versus expectations of +5.3% and last month’s year-over-reading of 4.6%. And producer prices came in at +6.6% versus expectations of 6.4%
Rates closed Friday 2/11 net even on the week, a nice break (despite wild daily swings) after rising .375% the week before. Rates could resume their rise this week in response to inflation reports from the U.S., China, and Great Britain. Inflation worries may cause investors to continue selling bonds, and home loan rates rise
Like most economic stats, inflation seems simple: it’s a measure of how consumer or business prices are rising in an economy. But how inflation is measured then interpreted by markets is less simple. Most inflation reports in the press—often referred to as ‘headline inflation’—are total consumer or business inflation numbers. But lots of effort goes
In light of today’s higher business inflation report, here’s a useful inflation reference tool from WSJ that I saw on ZeroHedge. But it should be noted that this is for consumer inflation, and business inflation is really the worry spot for bond and rate markets.
In light of today’s higher business inflation report, here’s a useful inflation reference tool from WSJ that I saw on ZeroHedge. But it should be noted that this is for consumer inflation, and business inflation is really the worry spot for bond and rate markets.
Rates are holding at the 5% range today after flat consumer inflation data and improving sentiment in the manufacturing sector. November consumer prices were up .1% versus October and 1.1% higher than November 2009. Excluding volatile oil and food costs, “Core” PPI for November was up .1% versus October and .8% higher than November 2009.
The rate climb discussed in recent weeks continues with Conforming 30yr fixed rates .75% higher than all-time lows October 7-8. This means a $184/mo higher mortgage payment for a loan of $417,000, and $323/mo higher for a loan of $729,750. Rates for Jumbo loans above $729,750 are only up .25% because these loans are not
Consumer inflation in China increased 5.1% from November 2009 to November 2010, and business inflation increased 6.1% for the same period. Food prices were a major inflationary factor, increasing 11.7%. Below are excerpts on consumer and business inflation from China’s full report, which some say is of questionable credibility. Still, this may cause China to
Rates have rebounded about .25% since rising for several days last week through Monday. Today’s US Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy, helped matters. It was nearly flat at 0.2% in October and 1.2% year-over-year through October. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” CPI
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