Personal income stagnating. New Home Sales improve, but still, 2011 numbers aren’t pretty.

Durable Goods Orders (September) -New Orders – Month/Month -0.8 % -Ex-transportation – Month/Month 1.7 % -It is possible that this indicates that the GDP gains in 3rdQ will not be matched by the 4thQ. The flattening of the leading Consumer Metrics data is still there. Housing -New Home Sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) 313,000. -Previous [...]

MBA Mortgage Applications -Purchase Index, Week/Week: +2.1% -Refinance Index, Week/Week: +11.2% -Composite Index, Week/Week: +9.3% -Refinancing activity was driven by the extremely low rates of last week. -Purchases are so small that a 2.1% bump is not that meaningful. Durable Goods Orders -New Orders, Month/Month: -0.1% -New Orders, Year/Year: 12.3% -Ex-transportation, Month/Month: -0.1% -Ex-transportation, Year/Year: [...]

MBAA Mortgage Applications (week ending 8/19) – Purchase Index – Week/Week: -5.7% – Refinance Index – Week/Week -1.7% – Composite Index – Week/Week -2.4% -Purchase apps lowest since 1996 -Weak purchases in what should be heart of home buying season -Lack of buyer confidence, concern about values, tough qualifying standards FHFA Home Price Index (June) [...]

GDP: – Final 1Q2011 1.9% vs. 3.1% for 4Q2010 – Imports up sharply, exports slowed – Consumer spending slowed, partly from slowdown in autos/parts – Government spending fell much more than in 4Q – Decline in federal spending (mainly defense) largest since 1Q2000 – Decline in state and local spending largest since 2Q1981 – Business [...]

Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications: – Purchase Index – Week/Week Change +1.5 % – Refinance Index – Week/Week Change +0.9 % – Composite Index – Week/Week Change +1.1 % Home Prices: FHFA House Price Index was -0.3% in March (these are prices on homes that have loans backed by Fannie & Freddie) Durable Goods Orders: [...]

Bonds and especially oil are trading wildly today as markets sort through mixed data. Both are generally up as the Libya situation unfolds, and when bond prices rise on a rally, rates drop. As for oil, was as high as $103 today and now more like $97. Below are the data releases from today: jobs [...]

Rates are about even today after rising yesterday, and 30yr rates are about 4.875%. Yesterday, December’s New Home Sales showed a 17.5% increase in single-family home sales (way more than 3.1% expected), the Fed said the economy is still struggling, and there was a well-received 5-yr Treasury auction. The Fed announcement should have offset the [...]

2011 Mortgage Rate Outlook The Mortgage Bankers Association released their mortgage rate predictions yesterday. They expect rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2010, increasing to a 4.7% average in the first quarter of 2011, and climbing to 5.1% by the end of next year. Most late-2009, early-2010 [...]

Bond Bubble? WSJ has the latest bond bubble talk, saying bond markets are growing riskier as investors seeking steady returns bid up prices and ignore some early warning signs similar to those that flashed during the credit bubble. Last week, prices on high-yield, or junk, bonds hit their highest level since 2007, nearly double their [...]