THE BASIS POINT

Fundamentals 9/28: Mortgage volume, GDP Preview

MBA Mortgage Applications
-Purchase Index, Week/Week: +2.1%
-Refinance Index, Week/Week: +11.2%
-Composite Index, Week/Week: +9.3%
-Refinancing activity was driven by the extremely low rates of last week.
-Purchases are so small that a 2.1% bump is not that meaningful.

Durable Goods Orders
-New Orders, Month/Month: -0.1%
-New Orders, Year/Year: 12.3%
-Ex-transportation, Month/Month: -0.1%
-Ex-transportation, Year/Year: +7.8%
-Mixed message here. Year/Year is good. Month/month is weak.
DGO

GDP Preview
GDP 3rd estimate is tomorrow. This is called the “final estimate” even though it can get revised for the next 6 years. With the data this weak the discretionary “corrections” made by BEA may be overwhelming the actual data. If this GDP estimate is weaker than expectation then we may see Treasuries rally. Consensus is for the +1.0% 2nd estimate to be revised upward to about 1.2%.