Today’s stat summary: Mortgage applications, retail sales, factory orders, Fed’s new rate communications policy

Services sector lowest reading since January 2010. Factory orders also slip. But markets more focused on EU than these fundamentals.

Factory Orders -Factory Orders (August) were -0.2% -Previous was +2.4% -Consensus was -0.3% -Consumer was not keeping pace and we have seen supply-side data reveal that business is now bringing its thinking in line with the consumer. Retail Sales -ISCS-Goldman Store Sales, Week/Week: +0.1% -ISCS-Goldman Store Sales, Year/Year: +3.7% -Redbook Store Sales, Year/Year: +4.1%. Previous [...]

Mortgage Applications (week ending 8/26) -Purchase Index Week/Week: +0.9% -Refinance Index Week/Week: -12.2% -Composite Index Week/Week: -9.6% -The increase in the purchase index is good news for the huisng sector which is in serious need of good news. The refi index is rate sensitive and next week will probably show an increase for this week. [...]

Jobs ADP private jobs for July +114,000. It is hard to get an accurate estimate for Friday’s BLS jobs report from the ADP report, and BLS is what counts. Last month BLS private jobs was 100,000 less than ADP. Also, it is likely that there will be a continuing loss of public jobs at the [...]

Factory Orders for May were +0.8% which almost makes up for a -0.9% in April. This datum however is below consensus. The ongoing discussion about the Greek debt situation misses the point that there is continuing concern about much sovereign debt be it Greece, the other PIIGS nations, Japan, China, or the U.S. Default of [...]

Rates Benefit on Stock Weakness The drop in the equity markets yesterday, and possibly again today, certainly helped the flow of funds into “safer” investments – such as Treasuries and MBS’s. But we also had some economic news of note, the first being Pending Home Sales. The index was up 5.3% in March, with sales [...]

Why does someone believe you when you say there are four billion stars, but have to check when you say the paint is still wet? That kind of person had better read the next paragraph. For anyone who originates loans for a living, or knows someone who does, or who didn’t comment during the HVCC [...]

GM filed for bankruptcy a few days ago. A buddy told me, “This would be bad news if anyone had actually bought a GM car in the last five years. They say that the company will emerge from bankruptcy in three years or 36,000 miles, whichever comes first.” There are some witty folks out there. [...]

Factory Orders Up 1.8%, Stocks Rally How ‘bout this market? Yesterday rates moved higher, and prices lower, after Factory Orders increased 1.8% in February, following a downwardly revised 3.5% drop in January, and six consecutive monthly decreases. So why wouldn’t rates come down? US stock markets continued their rally, and in fact most overseas stock [...]