Consumer inflation was 0.4% for January and 0.2% if you strip out more volatile food and gas prices. On an annual basis, consumer inflation was also relatively flat at 1.6% total, and 1% excluding food and gas. All of these figures are tame, and this flat consumer inflation news has caused mortgage bonds to rally [...]

Rates are up today as inflation week rolls on. This morning’s reading of January producer prices shows a .8% increase since December and a 3.6% increase since January 2010. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the “core” readings showed a greater-than-expected .5% increase since December and a 1.6% increase since last year.

Oil prices are in the mid-$80 per barrel range, and gasoline in many parts of the nation is sitting at or above $3 per gallon for regular unleaded. This is bad news for anyone who uses transportation, or buys goods that are transported. (Did I leave anyone out?) What do higher oil prices mean for [...]

China’s NBS site delivering “Server Too Busy” errors right now. Reminiscent of early crisis days when S&P servers started crashing on Case Shiller Home price release days. Anyway, consumer prices came in at +4.9% versus expectations of +5.3% and last month’s year-over-reading of 4.6%. And producer prices came in at +6.6% versus expectations of 6.4% [...]

Rates closed Friday 2/11 net even on the week, a nice break (despite wild daily swings) after rising .375% the week before. Rates could resume their rise this week in response to inflation reports from the U.S., China, and Great Britain. Inflation worries may cause investors to continue selling bonds, and home loan rates rise [...]

Like most economic stats, inflation seems simple: it’s a measure of how consumer or business prices are rising in an economy. But how inflation is measured then interpreted by markets is less simple. Most inflation reports in the press—often referred to as ‘headline inflation’—are total consumer or business inflation numbers. But lots of effort goes [...]

On Friday, a revolution and resulting chaos in Egypt caused U.S. rates (on 30yr fixed loans up to $417k) to drop .125% but Monday rates rose that amount, back to 4.875%, as mortgage bond traders re-focused on U.S. business inflation. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is one of many monthly manufacturing surveys done across the [...]

After a better rate day yesterday due mostly to a well-received 30yr bond auction, rates are even today after consumer inflation, retail sales, consumer confidence, and bank earnings figures. Following yesterday’s slightly hotter than expected business inflation report, today’s consumer inflation report confirms a relatively flat inflation environment—which helps keeps rates low. December’s consumer inflation [...]

30-year fixed mortgage rates head into Christmas at about 5% for a single family home loan up to $417,000, and about .25% higher for larger loans and most condo loans. Bond markets close at 2:00 ET today and reopen Monday. While today’s inflation report was flat, mortgage bonds sold off and pushed rates higher on [...]

Rates are holding at the 5% range today after flat consumer inflation data and improving sentiment in the manufacturing sector. November consumer prices were up .1% versus October and 1.1% higher than November 2009. Excluding volatile oil and food costs, “Core” PPI for November was up .1% versus October and .8% higher than November 2009. [...]