Retail Sales -ICSC-Goldman Same Store Sales Week/Week: -1.0% -ICSC-Goldman Same Store Sales Year/Year: 3.0% -Redbook Same Store Sales Year/Year: 3.6% -Redbook Previous was 4.7% -If consumer spending keeps slowing, we’ll have another recession

June New Home Sales -New Home Sales: 312,000 (annualized) -312k is less than half 700k economists consider healthy -Down 1% from May, up 1.6% from June 2010 -Median new home sales price up 7.2% to $235,200 -Average new home sales price $269,000 -60% of the gain is in the South -6.3 months supply at current [...]

Initial Jobless Claims – 429,000 for week ended June 18, up 9,000 from previous week – 4-week moving average 426,250, unchanged from previous week – Claims have been above 400,000 for the past 11 weeks – Job market remains extremely weak.

Rates remain at 2011 lows on mostly weaker economic reports. Below is a recap last week to today, newest first. Mortgage bonds rise on worse news, causing rates to fall and vice versa, so headlines are categorized accordingly. Rates should hold this week, which is dominated by May jobs reports (Wed and Fri) with latest [...]

Housing: -New Home Sales (for April) were 323,000 whch was better than previous and consensus.

Simplicity is key. For example, this is what actor George Burns used to answer when people asked him the secret to living past 100: “Don’t die.”

Yesterday’s S&P Case Shiller January 2011 report of existing home prices showed average U.S. home prices declined 3.1% from January 2010. Also January was the sixth straight month with a lower reading from the prior month, which reflects sustained foreclosure volumes and high unemployment. U.S. home prices are now at similar levels to what they [...]

Thirty-year rates are up .125% since Friday to 4.875% with zero points. Rates for loans above $417,000 and condos are higher. Weak U.S. new home sales data and Europe’s ongoing debt crisis have helped U.S. mortgage bonds rally in the past year, pushing rates down, but inflation is becoming the primary concern for bonds, which [...]

Bonds and especially oil are trading wildly today as markets sort through mixed data. Both are generally up as the Libya situation unfolds, and when bond prices rise on a rally, rates drop. As for oil, was as high as $103 today and now more like $97. Below are the data releases from today: jobs [...]

Last week, rates were steady a second straight week following a .375% rate spike the first two weeks of February. This despite lots of data showing manufacturers are facing significant price inflation which may soon be passed onto consumers. Rates would normally rise on inflation data, but consumer inflation came in flat and rate markets [...]