S&P: September Home Prices Down 17.4% YOY (20-city table), 21 Months of Declines
The S&P Case Shiller September 2008 report of existing home sales showed record year-over-year -17.4% price declines averaged across 20 major cities (see table below). In September, prices in all 20 cities in the composite were down. Between 3Q2007 and 3Q2008, home prices were down -16.6% across all nine US Census Divisions (as opposed to just the 20-city S&P composite). Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites have been in year-over-year decline for 21 consecutive months.
Case Shiller September 2008 & 3Q2008 Home Price Index
The index tracks existing single family homes, and is a highly credible pricing barometer for broad market analysis because it excludes condos and new construction. Condos can have more volatile pricing, and new construction pricing can be artificially set by builders, especially in times of distress when discounts an incentives can skew pricing.
FULL TEXT FROM PRESS RELEASE
New York, November 25, 2008 – Data through September 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed since 2007.
The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – remained in double digits, posting a record 16.6% decline in the third quarter of 2008 versus the third quarter of 2007. This has increased from the annual declines of 15.1% and 14.0%, reported for the 2nd and 1st quarters of the year, respectively. The 10-City and 20-City Composites continue to set new records, with annual declines of 18.6% and 17.4%, respectively.
“The turmoil in the financial markets is placing further downward pressure on a housing market already weakened by its own fundamentals.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “All three aggregate indices and 13 of the 20 metro areas are reporting new record rates of decline. Looking at the returns of the U.S. National Index, prices are back to where they were in early 2004. As of September 2008, the 10-City Composite is down 23.4% from its peak, the 20-City Composite is down 21.8% and the National Composite is down 21.0%.”
Phoenix was the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of 31.9%, followed by Las Vegas, down 31.3%, and San Francisco at -29.5%. Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego did not fair much better with annual declines of 28.4%, 27.6% and 26.3%, respectively. Dallas and Charlotte faired the best in September in terms of relative year-over-year returns. While also in negative territory, their declines remained in single digits of -2.7% and -3.5%, respectively. However, both are at rates of decline lower than those reported in August’s numbers. In addition, Charlotte also reported its largest monthly decline on record, down 1.3%. Monthly returns were negative across the board. Cleveland was the one market that showed any improvement in its year-over-year returns reporting -6.4% compared to the -6.6% reported for August.