Nouriel Roubini thinks the US economy is dangerously close to a double dip recession, and covers the topic in detail on his website. Below are his introductory notes on the topic of what kind of recovery we’re experiencing, and these topics are covered in detail on his site (which is subscriber based). A slew of
March 2010
Swerve aside Toyota. There’s a bigger, badder consumer recall notice on the loose now: Gerber Legendary Blades Recalls Machetes Due To Laceration Hazard. Totally off topic but hilarious. And true. Click the link for the full story, and below is the picture of the recalled machete. That machete is a laceration hazard? Are you sure?
Possible Bad Outcomes Of Fed Policy We began the year believing that rates were heading higher, with the Fed “tightening” and making credit costs higher – but this tightening cycle will be different. There are two policy decisions for the FOMC to make, the first being increasing short term rates, but also having to deal
Why Rates Won’t Rise On March 31, Problem 2nd Mortgages, FDIC’s To Auction $1b In Failed Bank Assets
Often I start the commentary off saying something witty, but I couldn’t think of anything clever so I thought I’d suggest you take a look at this video about seat belts (also embedded below). It is making the rounds, and with good reason. Why Rates Won’t Rise On March 31 The Federal Reserve has a
Rates Up This Morning, Slow Economic Week Last week rates were moved around by economic data. By Friday rates had improved slightly, and locks appeared to be picking up a little, but then a better-than-expected employment number pushed them higher. Fortunately for mortgage rates, the spread between them and the 10-yr Treasury (still a benchmark,
Despite a rate uptick today after a better than expected February jobs report, rates are holding to their sub-5% levels reached last week. To be specific: the market closed today at 4.75% on a 30yr fixed for a single family home with at least 20% equity, a loan of $417k or less, points of 1%,
This report covers weeks 60-61 of a mortgage bond purchase program by the Federal Reserve—here’s weeks 57-59. In the last two weeks, the Fed bought $21b net of mortgage bonds as follows: $11b Feb 18-24, $10b Feb 24-Mar 3. For the past 6 months, the Fed has focused weekly buying on 4.5% and 5% coupons
The Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payroll report showed that the economy lost 36,000 private sector jobs in February. January was revised from -20k to -26k jobs lost and December was revised from -150k to -109k jobs lost. This means 25 of the last 26 months have shown losses, putting the job loss toll since
Update on State & National Mortgage Licensing The SAFE Act continues to weigh on some agents’ minds. Different states have different interpretations. In general, the SAFE Act requires all mortgage loan officer license applicants to complete 20 hours of pre-license education, including three hours of federal law and regulations, three hours of ethics, including fraud,
The National Association of Realtors reported that the number of existing homes (as opposed to new construction) that entered into sales contracts in January dropped 7.6%. NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said bad weather was a big reason, and also said that ‘sufficient’ job creation would create a self-sustaining housing recovery. Many other economists think
An Underwriter Explains Why Are Loans So Hard To Approve Lately I have been hearing from producers, some of whom are upset about the current lending environment, some not. But for a slightly different view of things, here is what one very experienced and knowledgeable underwriter wrote to me. This is worth the read even
Funny or Die has taken the activist route by adding a ‘contact your senator’ message at the end of this hilarious video where the last 5 ex-presidents (as portrayed by Saturday Night LIve actors) visit Obama to give financial reform advice. So have a laugh then bug your Senator.
Market Reaction To Greece’s Plans, ADP Shows 20k Jobs Lost Greece announced a well-publicized $5.4 billion plan to cut its deficit (3rd one in 3 months), which of course has their workers protesting. Taking a longer term view, these measures should help the country. Depending on the news from Greece, money either flows in to
Putin’s Russian Mortgage Stimulus Any weapons race with Russia doesn’t receive the publicity it did 30 years ago. But whatever you call someone who originates loans in Russia (brokers?) received some good news last week, when Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced that the government will help to lower the mortgage rates investing more than
Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were 0.2% in January and 2.1% year-over-year through January. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index for January was unchanged and 1.4% YOY through January. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because
What Economic Stats Are Doing To Rates Are we heading for lower rates, or higher rates? Certainly there is no inflationary pressure, although GDP for the fourth quarter (generally thought of as “old news”) was revised slightly higher, and was the strongest quarter of economic growth in more than six years. But Existing Home Sales
Load More