New Record Rates After Sept Jobs Report: +64k Private Sector Jobs, 9.6% Unemployment (CHARTS)

Following this morning’s worse-than-expected September jobs report, mortgage bonds are up 34 basis points continuing a six session up-trend that’s brought rates down by .2%. The report showed 95,000 non-farm payrolls were lost and 64,000 private sector jobs were gained. Despite the private sector adding 863,000 jobs this year, the overall jobs report was perceived as weaker so rates dropped. Commentary and charts below.

The BLS report showed that the economy lost 95,000 non-farm jobs in September which reflects the fact that 159,000 government census workers have now completed their work. Actual new private sector jobs were 64,000 for September and 863,000 for 2010. Estimates called for a loss of 0 non-farm payrolls, much less than the actual 95,000 loss, and this disparity is why the market reaction is good for rates. BLS also reported that 14.8 million people are unemployed. This is a 9.6% unemployment rate, up 4.7% since the recession began in December 2007. See charts and more commentary on the U.S.’s 9.5m involuntary part-timer workers below, a number that has increased 943,000 in the past two months.

Additionally there are now 9.5 million people who would like to work full time but are working part time because their hours have been cut or they can’t find full-time jobs. This forced-into-part-time-work category is up 4.6m million since January 2008 and up 943,000 in the past two months. This is the fine print of the jobs report—the headline job loss and unemployment statistics show that these 9.5 million people are employed and therefore not in the job loss category, but because of their job status these 9.5 million workers aren’t likely to be consuming at normal levels. This poor statistic in the jobs report is mostly unreported, but until there’s movement here, a sustained recovery will be elusive.

CHART 1: PRIVATE SECTOR JOB GAIN/LOSS DEC 2007 TO SEPT 2010