Pending Home Sales Index (June 2014) – Pending Home Sales Index 103.9. Previous was 97.8. This is from the National Association of Realtors and measures ratified sales agreements for Existing Homes. Chicago PMI (June 2014) – Business Barometer Index 62.6. Previous was 65.5 Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (June 2014) – Business Activity Index 11.4.
June 2014
In their third estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was contracting at a -2.94% annualized rate. When compared to prior quarters, the new measurement is down nearly 5.6% from the 2.64% growth rate reported for the 4th quarter of 2013,
Jobless Claims (week ended 6/21/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 312,000. Previous was 314,000 – New claims (not seasonally adjusted) totaled 304,169 an increase of 2,832 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average 314,250 Personal Income and Outlays – Personal Income Month/Month +0.4%. Previous was +0.3% – Consumer Spending Month/Month +0.2%. Previous was
GDP (1stQ2014) – Real GDP quarter/quarter -2.9%. Previous release was -1.0% – GDP price index quarter/quarter +1.3%. This is a measure of inflation weighted according as how much each component contributes to GDP. This data is terrible. The “story” is that this hot to GDP was all related to bad weather. MBA Mortgage Applications (week
FHFA House Price Index (April 2014) – month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.7% – year/year +5.9%. Previous was +6.4%. I see this as a very positive sign. Higher home prices mean fewer homeowners and less discretionary spending. For the sake of the economy we should hope for home prices to stay flat or, at least, not
Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index – Index level +0.21. Previous was -0.32 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (June 2014) – Index level 57.5. Previous was 56.2 This is a survey index produced by Markit – an international data gathering company. These two releases indicate an improving manufacturing sector. Existing Home Sales (May 2014) – Existing
Jobless Claims – Initial Claims (seasonally adjusted) 312,000. Previous was 318,000 – Initial Claims (not seasonally adjusted) were 300,193 a decrease of 13,178 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average 311,750. Previous was 315,500 Jobless claims remain low but are only part of the bigger jobs picture. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey (June 2014)
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/13/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -5.2%. Previous weeks were +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, and +3.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -13.0%. Previous weeks were +11.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, -4.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, and -3.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -9.2%. Previous weeks were
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/13/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -5.2%. Previous weeks were +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, and +3.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -13.0%. Previous weeks were +11.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, -4.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, and -3.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -9.2%. Previous weeks were
CPI (May 2014) – CPI overall month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.3% – CPI overall year/year +2.1%. Previous was +2.0% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.2% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +1.9%. Previous was +1.8%. This data is seasonally adjusted and the non-adjusted data is lower. This
CPI (May 2014) – CPI overall month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.3% – CPI overall year/year +2.1%. Previous was +2.0% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.2% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +1.9%. Previous was +1.8%. This data is seasonally adjusted and the non-adjusted data is lower. This
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (June 2014) – General Business Conditions 19.28. Previous was 190.1. This is a survey index of manufacturers in New York State. Treasury International Capital (April 2014) – Foreign Demand for Long-term U.S. Securities -$24.2 billion. Previous was +$4.0 billion. This is all U.S. securities including Treasury debt, corporate debt and equities.
Retail Sales (May 2014) – Retail Sales month/month +0.3%. Previous revised to +0.5% – Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.1%. Previous revised to +0.4% – Less Autos & Gas month/month +0.0%. Previous revised to +0.3%. The data is neutral. Retail Sales were less than expectations but revisions to the previous month bring it in line
Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/6/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +9.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and -1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +11.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, -4.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, and -8.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +10.3%. Previous weeks were -3.1%,
JOLTS (April 2014) – Job Openings 4,455,000. Previous was 4,014,000. This is a very positive sign for jobs. Companies are looking for more employees. This is the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 6/7/2014) – Chain Store Sales week/week -2.8%. Previous was +2.9% – Chain Store Sales year/year
This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000
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