GDP Components Rise.

Retail Sales (May 2014)

– Retail Sales month/month  +0.3%. Previous revised to +0.5%

– Retail Sales less autos month/month  +0.1%. Previous revised to +0.4%

– Less Autos & Gas month/month  +0.0%. Previous revised to +0.3%.

The data is neutral.  Retail Sales were less than expectations but revisions to the previous month bring it in line with expectations. This is important because this measures consumer spending which is the largest GDP component. A 2ndQ2014 GDP report showing a decline in GDP would mean we were in recession.  This now appears highly unlikely.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended June 7)

– New Claims 317,000. Previous was 313,000 – 4-week Moving Average 355,250

Claims have remained low and Job Openings are up so the jobs market looks good.  However if the effect of ACA is to reduce hours of some workers to under 30 and hire more then we will have more people working but these may be what BLS calls “people employed part-time for economic reasons.”  Those are people who want to work more hours but their employer will not let the.  They will not really be employed part-time for economic reasons but because by working 30 hours or more their employer would have to provide health care.

With all the delays to ACA implementation his may not sort out any time this year.  

Import and Export Prices (May 2014)

– Export Prices month/month +0.1%. Prior was -1.0%

– Export Prices year/year +0.5%

– Import Prices month/month +0.1%. Prior was -0.5%

– Import Prices year/year +0.4%

Prices are flat because of relatively stagnant economies most everywhere.

Business Inventories (April 2014)

– Inventories month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.4%.

This is another GDP component.