Personal Income & Spending (March 2016) – Personal Income +0.4%. Previous was +0.2% – Personal Spending +0.0%. Previous was +0.2%. People are making more but not spending more. This is likely a sector based thing. Employment Cost Index (1stQ 2016) – Index +0.6%. Previous was +0.6%. This measures wages/salaries and benefits. University of
April 2016
GDP (1stQ2016) – Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.5%. Previous was +1.4%. This is the first look and has 3 months of data only for consumer spending. Imports, exports and government spending have 2 months of data and one month of estimate. Consumer Spending was up 1.9% while business investment was down. Business investment
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/22/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +0.2%, -7.0%, and +5.0%,. – Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%. +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, +16.0%, +16.0%, +0.3%, and +11.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -4.1%.
Durable Goods Orders (March 2016) – New Orders month/month +0.8%. Previous was -3.1% – New Orders year/year -2.5%. Previous was +1.6% – Ex-transportation month/month -0.2%. Previous was -1.3% – Ex-transportation year/year -1.4%. Previous was -0.6% – Core capital goods month/month +0.0%. Previous was -2.7% – Core capital goods year/year -2.4%. Previous was -0.8% One could
New Home Sales (March 2016) – New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 511,000. Previous was 519,000. This is weak. We should probably be happy with a level of about 700,000-800,000. Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (April 2016) – Production Index 5.8. Previous was 3.3 – General Activity Index -13.9. Previous was -13.6. This is a
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PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (April 2016) – Index level 50.8. Previous was 51.4. Just barely growing.
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/16/2016) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 247,000. Previous was 253,000 – New Claims unadjusted totaled 241,862 a decrease of 28,557 from previous – 4-week Moving seasonally adjusted 260,500. Previous was 265,000 This datum is close to being the only one supporting the notion that the economy is healthy. Even the
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/15/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +0.2%, -7.0%, +5.0%, and -2.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +3.0%. Previous weeks were +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, +16.0%, +16.0%, +0.3%, +11.0%, and +19.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +1.3%
Housing Starts (March 2016) – Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,089,000. Previous was 1,194,000 – Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,086,000. Previous was 1,177,000 Single-family starts were 727,000 (annualized). Permits were also down. This data is prepared by the Census Bureau which regards 1,500,000 starts as the level necessary to keep pace with population growth. SFR Starts
Housing Market Index (April 2016) – Housing Market Index 58. Previous was 58. This is a survey index. The survey is conducted by The National Association of Home Builders. This reading is good but not great – modest growth
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (April 2016) – General Business Conditions Index 9.56. Previous was +0.62. This is the result of a survey of manufacturers in New York State. While manufacturing is no longer very important to the economy of New Your folks look at the because it is the first regional manufacturing release each month.
Consumer Price Index (March 2016) – CPI overall month/month +0.1%. Previous was -0.2% – CPI overall year/year +0.9%. Previous was +1.0% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.3% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +2.2%. Previous was +2.3%. The Federal Reserve seems dedicated to pushing CPI higher and,
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/8/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week +8.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +0.2%, -7.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, and +18.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +11.0%. Previous weeks were +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, +16.0%, +16.0%, +0.3%, +11.0%, +19.0%, and +24.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +10.0%.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (March 2016) – Level 92.6. Previous was 92.9. This is weak but mixed. Plans for capital were strong but business is having difficulty finding skilled people to fill job openings. Import and Export Prices (March 2016) – Import Prices month/month +0.2%. Previous was -0.4% – Export Prices month/month +0.0%.
Wholesale Trade (February 2016) – Inventories month/month -0.5%. Previous was -0.2%. This is a component of GDP and another sign that 1stQ2016 GDP will likely be below 1% annualized.
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