Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/2/2016) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 267,000. Previous was 276,000 – New Claims unadjusted, totaled 246,023 an increase of 10,307 from previous – 4-week Moving Average 266,750. Previous was 263,250 The Jobs market continues to be a relatively poor indicator of economic growth. We have had an extended period
April 2016
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/1/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +0.2%, -7.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +18.0%, and -15.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +7.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, +16.0%, +16.0%, +0.3%, +11.0%, +19.0%, +24.0%, and -37.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +2.7%.
International Trade (February 2016) – Trade Deficit $47.1 billion. Previous was $45.9 billion. The change in deficit is complicated by many factors: changing oil prices, increasing demand for U.S. made consumer goods, decreasing demand for U.S. capital goods. and even a decrease in foreign demand for U.S. Services. Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended
Labor Market Conditions Index (March 2016) – Level -2.1. Previous was -2.4. This is an index generated by the Fed which takes into account 19 labor market indicators. Clearly the “everything is just dandy” media hype about Friday’s Jobs report misreads the labor market. Factory Orders (February 2016) – Factory Orders month/month -1.7%.