Personal Income and Outlays (April 2016) – Personal Income month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.4% – Consumer Spending month/month +1.0%. Previous was +0.0% – PCE Price Index month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.1% – Core PCE price index month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1% – PCE Price Index year/year +1.1%. Previous was +0.8% – Core PCE price index
May 2016
1stQ2016 GDP – Real GDP quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.8%. Previous was +0.5% – GDP price index quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.6%. Previous was +0.7% – Real Final Sales of Domestic Products +1.02%. Commercial Investment, Inventories and Exports were all down. While this is improved from the first estimate it is still weak. If you
Durable Goods Orders (April 2016) – New Orders month/month +3.4%. Previous was +1.9% – New Orders year/year +1.9%. Previous was -2.9% – Ex-transportation month/month- +0.4%. Previous was +0.1% – Ex-transportation year/year -1.4%. Previous was -2.1% – Core capital goods month/month -0.8%. Previous was -0.1% – Core capital goods year/year -5.0%. Previous was -5.0% The DGO
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/20/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, and +2.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +0.4%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +0.5%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +3.0%. +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, and -8.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +2.3%.
Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 5/21/2016) – Store Sales year/year +0.4%. Previous was +0.5%. Is there a better word for “sluggish?” New Home Sales (April 2016) – New Home Sales (seasonally adjusted annualized) 619,000. Previous was 531,000. This is the highest level since 2008. This is +15.4% month/month and +23.8% year/year. By
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (May 2016) – Index level 50.0. Previous was 50.8. This is a survey index intended to measure activity on the supply side. This reading is soft indicating once again that monetary policy stimulus has had little effect on the economy.
Existing Home Sales (April 2016) – Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 5,450,000. Previous was 5,360,000 – Month/month was +1.7%. Year/year was +6.0%. While the increase in Existing Home Sales is a positive sign it is also a result of the fact that Housing Starts have yet to recover from the fall started in 2007.
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended May 14, 2016) – Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 278,000. Previous was 294,000 – Initial Claims unadjusted were 244,797a decrease of 17,099 from previous week – 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 268,250. Previous was 268,250 The week-to-week is down but the 4-week average is up. There is still concern that we
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/13/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week -6.0%. Previous weeks were +0.4%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, and -4.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +0.5%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +3.0%. +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, and +16.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -1.6%.
Consumer Price Index (April 2016) – CPI overall month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI overall year/year +1.1%. Previous was +0.9% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +2.1%. Previous was +2.2%. These increases were expected. Inflation should be the most important
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (May 2016) – General Business Conditions Index -9.02. Previous was +9.56. April’s gain was lost. Housing Market Index – Housing Market Index 58. Previous was 58. Buyer traffic and participation by first-time homebuyers remains weak reflecting weak economic growth and tougher mortgage qualifying mandates. This is a survey index
Retail Sales (April 2016) – Retail Sales month/month +1.3%. Previous was -0.3% – Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.4% – Less Autos & Gas month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.2% Overall Sales recovered. Autos Sales which had been hammered in previous months recovered. Retail sales is the heart of GDP so this is
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/7/2016) – Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 294,000. Previous was 274,000 – Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 261,840 an increase of 18,389 from previous – 4-week Moving Average 268,250. Previous was 258,000 While Initial Claims are still historically low we may be bouncing off that low. Media accounts of the health of
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/6/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week +0.4%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, and +0.2%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +0.5%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, -5.0%, +3.0%. +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, +16.0%, and +16.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +0.4%.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (April 2016) – Index level 93.6. Previous was 92.6. Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 5/7/2016) – Store Sales year/year +1.1%. Previous was +0.6%. JOLTS (March 2016) – Job Openings 5,757,000. Previous was 5,608,000. The JOLTS report is the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Labor Market Conditions Index (April 2016) – Level -0.9. Previous was -2.1. This is an index generated by the Fed which takes into account 19 labor market indicators. The jobs market was never as healthy as the media was pretending. This datum and last Friday’s BLS report indicate this. We had decent jobs gains but
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