4thQ2013 GDP Revised Down.

GDP (4thQ2013)

– Real (inflation adjusted) GDP Quarter/Quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized) +2.4%.

– GDP deflator Quarter/Quarter +1.6%.  Previous announcement was +1.3%

The advanced estimate had been +3.2%.  This moves this piece of data from mildly encouraging to mildly discouraging.  It also shows just how poor the advanced estimate of GDP is.  The problem is that several GDP components (government spending, investments, imports, and exports have only 2 of 3 months of data when the advance estimate is made.  The 3rd month is estimated. A GDP growth rate of +2.4% is not going to expand the economy enough to create jobs and provide revenue to support government spending.  One thing I always pay attention to is the ratio of debt/GDP which has gone up massively since the recession started in 2008.

Chicago PMI (February 2014)

– Business Barometer Index 59.8.  Previous was 59.6.

Consumer Sentiment (February 2014)

– University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 81.6. Previous was 81.2.

This measures consumers’ intention to spend in the next 3 months.

Pending Home Sales Index  (January 2014)

– Pending Home Sales Index Month/Month 95.0.  Previous was revised from 92.4 to 94.9.

This comes from NAR (The National Association of Realtors) and is supposed to be a leading indicator of Existing Home Sales.