THE BASIS POINT

ADP Shows 9k New Jobs In July, Official BLS Jobs Report Tomorrow

 

Yesterday, ADP, a provider of payroll services to more than 24 million Americans employed in the private sector, released their monthly jobs data which showed that the economy added 9000 jobs in July. The expectations were for a loss of 60,000 jobs. As we’ve discussed in previous months, they have missed the mark relative to the official government jobs report produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS report comes out tomorrow and consensus estimates call for a loss of 70,000 jobs.

The BLS has shown job losses every month through June, even following a few months earlier this year where the ADP numbers came in positive. The jobs report has a large impact on markets, and mortgage rates always move on this report since it’s such a broad measure of the economy, covering consumer strength, unemployment and wage inflation. We think the job loss trend will continue as measured by the BLS report, and that rates will be the same or lower.

 

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