Chain Store Sales: Weak Growth. Small Business Optimism at Recession Levels.

Rates a bit better to start the bond market week (bonds were closed yesterday) following a rough couple days to close last week that sent rates higher.

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 10/6/2012)

Store Sales – Week/Week +0.2%.Previous was -0.3%
Store Sales – Year/Year 2.8%. Previous was 2.4%.

Redbook (week ended 10/6/2012)

Same Store Sales Year/Year 1.6%. Previous was +2.3%.

These reports are indicative of only modest growth.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (September 2012)

– Index was 92.8 down from 92.9.

This is a survey index.  NFIB describes this reading: “The recession-level reading was pulled down by a deterioration in labor market indicators, with job creation plans plunging 6 points, job openings falling one point and more firms reporting decreases in employment than those reporting increases in employment.”

This statement underlines the contradictions is last Friday’s BLS reports where the Establishment survey showed fewer added jobs than necessary to keep pace with population growth while the household survey showed 873,000 more people working. I don’t believe that BLS cooks data but I do believe that the Establishment survey is much more reliable. Here’s a description of each.

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