Inflation remains subdued: Core CPI +2.1% YOY


Consumer Price Index (November 2016)

– CPI month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.4%
– CPI year/year Previous was +1.6%. Previous was +1.7%
– CPI core (less food & energy month/month) +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%
– CPI less food & energy year/year +2.1%. Previous was +2.1%

Inflation remains subdued. It has been my belief that one of the biggest fears the Fed had is deflation. Pay attention to CPI over the next 6 months. If it falls the Fed will gear monetary policy toward creating more inflation. The irony is that the things which have contributed the most to inflation in the recent past are: education, health care, and housing — all things which are relatively unaffected by monetary policy.


Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/10/2016)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted 254,000. Previous was 258,000
– New Claims unadjusted totaled 305,100 a decrease of 47,434 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average 257,750. Previous was 252,500

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey (December 2016)

– General Business Conditions Index 21.5. Previous was 7.6


Empire State Manufacturing Survey (December 2016)

General Business Conditions Index 9.0. Previous was 1.5

Gains in these two regional Fed surveys are positives for the economy.


Current Account (3rdQ2016)

– Current Account $-113.0 Billion. Previous was -$111.9 billion

This is an extended version of the Trade deficit. It is comprised of goods, services and unilateral transfers.

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (December 2016)

– Level 54.2. Previous was 53.9

Housing Market Index (December 2016)

– Housing Market Index 70. Previous was 63.

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