THE BASIS POINT

Fundamentals 10/3: Better Manufacturing, Rate Preview

Manufacturing
-ISM Manufacturing Index 51.6
-Below 50 is contraction, above 50 is expansion
-Previous was 50.6, expectations for today were 50.5
-The employment component was up but new orders were down.
-This data is produced by the Institute for Supply Management from a survey of more than 300 manufacturing firms.
ISM

Construction Spending
– Construction Spending – Month/Month +1.4%
– Construction Spending – Year/Year +0.9%
– Public sector construction spending was +3.1%
– Private residential was +0.7%
– Private commercial was +0.2%
Construction Spending

Treasuries will continue to be driven by Eurozone concern. Greece announced that it would not be able to cut its budget deficit to the IMF mandated level. This is the Catch-22 of austerity causing lower GDP and lower tax receipts.

This Friday has the BLS Employment Situation Report which is always a market mover. More people with jobs = more people spending money = Higher GDP. Last month was dead flat. In addition the weak labor market has kept nominal wages from growing with the effect that real (inflation adjusted) wages are down. Recovery will be driven by the consumer who is in a tight spot.