Fundamentals 10/7: Era Of Diminished Expectations

BLS Employment Situation Report shows +103,00 new nonfarm payrolls for September and moves August from flat to +57,000 and move July gains up as well. For the past 3 months there were +287,000 jobs. We need about +140,000 jobs/month to keep pace with population growth and maintain the same ratio of those employed/total population. Since April, job growth has averaged 72,000/month.The gains are almost entirely in private sector service jobs and 40,800 or the gain is health care.

Most telling is that this dismal data is now regarded as positive. We are in an era of diminished expectations. The day started with equities moving up and Treasuries & mortgage bonds selling. When monthly jobs growth averages 200,000/month for a three month period, the economy will be growing. Not growing by a lot, but growing.