Fundamentals 7/25: 2Q GDP Preview

The highlight this week will be this Friday’s Advance 2Q2011 GDP, the first of three readings. GDP = C+I+G+(X-M) where C= Consumer Spending. I = Investments, G=Government Spending, X=eXports and M=iMports. The advance GDP has only 2 of 3 months data on G and I and can see substantial revision. The range of estimates for GDP is from +1% to +2.1%. More forecasting here.

Chicago Fed Index of National Business Activity for June is -0.46. The dark line on chart below is 3mo average and grey bars are the monthly data. The 3-month moving average is -0.60. This is a national index based on 85 pieces of data. Details here.
Chicago Fed National Business Activity Index

Equity and Treasury markets will, this week, be buffeted by whatever is happening in D.C. regarding things fiscal.

The Consumer Metrics Index of on-line discretionary spending hasd been very positive. According to Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics comments on July 23: “The past two weeks have resulted in one of our rare “wow” moments here at the Consumer Metrics Institute. On July 19 our Weighted Composite Index defied recent history and reached a single-day record level of year-over-year growth before subsiding slightly since.”